1st and 10 with DFF Week 4

1st and 10 with DFF Week 4 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 4-  April 4th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Samuel Feldman. Be sure to follow Zach on Twitter @ThaDudeFeldman

 

Utter-Fantasy #1)  The starting quarterback for Buffalo is still Tyrod Taylor, with EJ Manuel as his back up. Since HC Rex Ryan didn’t make any free agent quarterback acquisitions, can he really be content going into the 2016 season with those 2 guys??

DFF Response) Yes, the Bills can be content with Taylor, but may not be content with Manuel. Although Ryan is the head coach, Greg Roman controls the offense. Roman had Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick at QB in his stint as OC in San Francisco. If you think he doesn’t want Tyrod as quarterback, then you overlook the archetype he already had before coming to Buffalo. At least at starter the Bills are content with Taylor, as for how they feel about Manuel, we will see based on moves they make throughout the rest of the off-season.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)  Last season, SD RB Melvin Gordon’s was, on average, the 14th running back taken in fantasy football drafts. He ended 2015 as the 51st RB with only 641 yards on 184 carries- ZERO touchdowns. HC Mike McCoy is blaming his 2015 offensive line. Is RB Gordon going to be a “better player” as a sophomore, or will he end being a 1st round bust for San Diego?

DFF Response)  Although the Chargers had offensive line issues last year, there was more to Melvin Gordon’s struggles then just that. His bad decision when running the ball and fumbling issues are things he needs to fix, regardless of his offensive line. Do I expect him to be better? Yes, but only because it is tough to be worse than he was in 2015. I am buying him if the price is low and right, but that means cheap and as my 3rd RB at best. Also going overlooked is how good Danny Woodhead is as more than just a passing back. Additionally, Branden Oliver is a very capable back who is worth owning as a deep stash in dynasty leagues as he could steal Gordon’s role if Gordon continues to struggle. While I expect Gordon to improve, it is because he was so bad, but I am not betting on him making a great impact. Stashing either of the other San Diego backs could turn out to be a wise investment if Gordon continues to struggle.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)   Many fantasy football players like having kickers as one of the scoring options in fantasy leagues, and many just want the position eliminated. It’s usually as even a spilt, as choosing between Ginger and Mary Ann. Where do you vote….kicker or no kicker……(and Ginger or Mary Ann?)

DFF Response) While I am too young to take sides on Gilligan’s Island, I am for kickers in fantasy because having fantasy, somewhat resemble real football, makes it more fun. So what if you lose because of Justin Tucker kicking five field goals one week, it sucks, but that’s what makes fantasy football interesting, while often agonizing. If you don’t want kickers, that’s fine, but I will continue to remain on the kicker train even though I am now in leagues where there are not kickers. Having said that, I will never be on board with punters in fantasy.

(Utter-Fantasy Response- Mary Ann)

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  2015 was the first time in five seasons that RB Frank Gore failed to reach 1,000 yards. QB A Luck getting injured was a major factor, as was the hideously awful Indianapolis O-Line. If Indy gets help up front, are buying or selling RB Gore in 2016?

DFF Response) While there were many disadvantageous factors for Frank Gore in Indianapolis last year, I am not expecting a bounce back year from him. At age 32 and with over 2,800 carries between both regular season and postseason, it is time that Gore stops defying the odds of running back success. However, if Indianapolis drafts a back, Keith Marshall or Jonathan Williams for instance, then sign me up for drafting them. So, I am selling Gore, but buying his replacement.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  HC Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide usually produce 1-2 running backs that enter the NFL Draft as highly touted prospects. RBs Mark Ingram and Eddie Lacy have, for the most part, lived up to expectations. RBs Trent Richardson did not, and T.J. Yeldon hasn’t yet.  6’2″ Alabama RB Derrick Henry is slated as the #2 running back in the upcoming 2016 NFL Draft. Could he be another product of a great system, or is he a great running back for the NFL?

DFF Response)   In my view, Derrick Henry will be a good NFL running back, if he ends up in the right power running system. Expect Henry to be the ugly, unsexy (for fantasy purposes) bruiser in a committee backfield. Places like the Jets, Cowboys, Giants and Colts all present interesting fits. The first two spots are actually very interesting because both have cloudy backfields, which may lead to him falling in some drafts thus, making him a value as he should win roles in those places. Nevertheless, Henry is “very landing spot dependent” in my opinion.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6)  Tampa Bay seems to think WR Vincent Jackson has at least 1-2 more good NFL years in him, do you? ( VJ was the #65 wide receiver last season with only 543 receiving yards and 3 TDs, with basically no other competition for targets other than WR Mike Evans )

DFF Response) Jackson may very well have a good year or two left in him, as he was effective when healthy. However, it is tough to bet on an old veteran receiver coming off numerous injuries the year before. For that reason, I will only own shares of him if he is very inexpensive, because I do not expect more than a few good games from him this year. Additionally, Tampa Bay has five options at skill positions on that offense who all could end up being more valuable. Those options include; Mike Evans, Doug Martin, Charles Sims, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Kenny Bell. Therefore, tread very very cautiously with Jackson and ultimately do not expect anything of significance from him this year.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7)  7 – I thought RGIII would be signed by owner Jerry Jones as a dependable back-up for Romo, but RGIII signed with Cleveland. There aren’t a lot of options left, unless Jones is planning on a rookie from the 2016 NFL Draft. What do you think about Michael Vick signing with Dallas?

DFF Response) I am not a fan of Vick in Dallas. I actually would rather see Christian Hackenberg get drafted by the Cowboys. Sitting behind and learning from Romo would most likely be an ideal situation for both Hackenberg and the Cowboys long term. Additionally, that offensive line in Dallas would give Hackenberg a chance to see a clean pocket for the first time in years should be be called on to play sometime this season. If anything, the Cowboys need to look at both short and long term when looking at a back-up for Romo and Hackenberg provides potentially the best of both worlds.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  Even splitting time with RBs DeMarco Murray and Darren Sproles, Ryan Matthews ended 2015 as the #33 running back in the NFL. I think he will be sneaky #1/#2 RB that will surprise most fantasy football owners and can be selecting as late as the 3rd or 4th rounds. What are your thoughts on him?

DFF Response) As long as Philadelphia does not look to draft a running back and Mathews stays healthy (a big IF), he has a good chance to be a league winner for fantasy teams this year. People hated on him more for being injured rather than for lacking talent, so if he is the lead back then he can provide some very good value this year. Additionally, Mathews is still at a reasonable age for running backs and he has good measurables, akin to Marshawn Lynch, so hoping for a bellcow year is not unreasonable. Overall, Mathews presents good risk-reward value for those willing to take him in that range, as he could turn into a fantasy difference-maker with the lead role in Philadelphia.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9)   TE Vernon Davis just signed with Washington. Last year when he was signed by Denver, it was a waiver wire storm for fantasy football owners trying to get him. Davis ended up with 20 catches for 201 yards and 0 TDs for the Broncos. Do you agree that his signing won’t hurt TE Jordan Reed’s stats in 2016?

DFF Response)  I am probably disliking Davis a little too much, but I am calling him a camp body, to show just how little I am concerned with his fantasy value. he won’t hurt Reed’s stats or value, because Davis is not as good as he once was. Simply, this is Washington looking for more Reed insurance in case he gets hurt again. Although, I am a fan of Niles Paul should anything happen to Reed. I am dubious of Washington running more two tight end sets if both Paul and Reed are healthy.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10)   If you were a team last year looking to draft a rookie quarterback, who would you have selected, Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota?

DFF Response) Plain and simple, I am a Mariota guy. I was always was aboard the Mariota train, but could never fully hop on the Winston train. However, both are good and should be good for years, but Mariota is my guy plain and simple.

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

Denver Broncos Team Profile 2016

Denver Broncos Team Profile 2016 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

QB Peyton Manning got his 2nd Super Bowl ring, and the football world got what they were clamoring for. The “Sheriff” now has the green light to go out on top….if he wants to. It was the Broncos 3rd Super Bowl victory since 1998. I have to think Manning would have liked to win with a historic Manning-esque showing, rather than 141 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. The Denver #1 defense was ferocious all season, and was a nightmare for Carolina QB Cam Newton in Super Bowl 50.

2016 Team Outlook –
Denver has won the AFC West five years in a row now, and a Super Bowl as the cherry on top. The rest of the AFC West, the Chiefs, the Chargers and the Raiders may be happy about Super Bowl 50 and hope Manning does in fact retire. Th Chargers had the worst record in the division last year, 4-12, so they have the most work to do to be competitive in 2016.


2016 Fantasy Football Outlook-

QB– Peyton Manning still hasn’t declared retirement ( as of Feb 18, 2016 ) but the Broncos’ organization really needs to move in a different direction. Additionally, the Broncos have not opened contract negotiations with impending free agent Brock Osweiler either, and the clock is ticking. Osweiler could get plenty of interest if he hits free agency. Brock Osweiler- drafted 2nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft, started for Denver Weeks 10-17 of the regular season while Manning (foot) recovered from injuries. Osweiler finished the season completing 170 completions out of 275 attempts (61.8%) for 1,967 yards for 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while having a 86.4 quarterback rating. UPDATE: QB Brock Osweiler signs with Houston


RBs–
Fantasy football owners of C J Anderson had to be a bit nervous through the first 7 weeks of the 2015 regular NFL season. RB Ronnie Hillman already had 2 100+ yard rushing games and 2 touchdowns. RB Anderson did not. Anderson didn’t get going until Week 8, with 101 rushing yards ( thanks to a 28 yard TD run) By the end of the season, both backs had 7 rushing TDs and both over 1000+ total yards from scrimmage. Hillma is a free agent this year and CJ Anderson has said that “he believes he can be a bell-cow back….25 times, 27 times, 28 times, either way!”

WRs–
  Few wide receivers would call 1304 receiving yards/ 6 touchdowns an “off year”, but it was for WR Demaryius Thomas.  He was the #13 wide receiver for 2015….not quite the #4 WR that he was in 2014, the #2 in 2013, or the #5 in 2012. Thomas will return as the Broncos’ No. 1 receiver in 2016. His base salary will be $13 million. -WR Emmanuel Sanders ended 2015 as the #18 wide receiver with numbers very close to those of Demaryius Thomas….1135 receiving yards and also 6 touchdowns. Sanders signed a three-year, $15 million contract- the deal contains $6 million guaranteed. Another $3 million is available through incentives. $5 million in 2016. He’ll be a free Agent in 2017. 6’2″ Cody Latimer continues to be a disappointing 2014 2nd-round pick , and was even stuck behind WRs Fowler and Norwood.. The consistent production by Thomas and Sanders makes it almost impossible for another wide receiver to shine in Denver.


TEs–
Where Gary Kubiak goes, so goes TE Owen Daniels. Both were in Baltimore  and on March 10th, 2015, the Broncos signed TE Owen Daniels to three-year, $12 million contract. 46 receptions in 2015, 517 yards with 3 TDs, and he came up huge in the Conference post-season game vs New England- 2 catches, 33 yards and 2 TDs. On Nov. 2, 2015 the Broncos acquired TE Vernon Davis and a 2016 seventh-round pick from the 49ers. Fantasy football owners hot to waiver wire the new acquisition were painfully disappointed- only 2 games over 25 yards receiving and zero TDs in Denver.

K–
Former Colts K Brandon McManus, ended 2015 as the #10 place kicker in the NFL. 30 of 35 field goals and 35 of 36 extra points, McManus the season kicking 3 field goals for the Broncos in Super Bowl 50.


DEF–
The Denver defense went from a respectable in 2014, to revered in 2016. #1 vs the pass and #4 vs the run…..Denver’s #1 defense in the NFL ran over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50. Not bad for DC Wade Phillips, who was out of football in 2014, and who had 22 defensive coordinators hired to NFL teams before Denver snagged him on January 28th, 2015. Super Bowl 50 MVP OLB Von Miller is a free agent.

2015 Denver Fantasy Surprises–
It was written that QB Brock Osweiler regressed from Week 10 to Week 17, when he took over for rehabbing QB Peyton Manning. When we look at Week 16 however, who could complain with a 27/39-299 yards passing with 1 TD- 0 INTs in a game in which Denver won? He was yanked in Week 17, but was it for 2 INTs ( after throwing a 72 yard TD bomb to WR D Thomas) or because QB P Manning was ready? Denver would be wise to sign this guy.

2016 Free Agents that Denver Needs to Address–
QB Brock Osweiler (signed w/ HOU) , RB Ronnie Hillman, TE Vernon Davis, WR Jordan Norwood, OLB Von Miller, DE Malik Jackson, ILB Danny Trevathan (signed w/ CHI) , ILB Brandon Marshall (RFA), OG Evan Mathis, DE Antonio Smith, SS David Bruton, FS Shiloh Keo, FS Omar Bolden, LT Ryan Harris, OT Tyler Polumbus (RB C.J. Anderson, RFA)

2016 NFL Draft–
A lot will depend on what happens to free agents QB Brock Osweiler,  as well RBs Anderson and Hillman Denver would rather concentrate on shoring up one of the weaker O-Lines in the NFL.  The Broncos could also key components from their defense. Denver’s 2015 NFL Draft.

Did You Know–
Hall-of-Fame Quarterback John Elway played his entire career with the Broncos, although he was drafted by the Colts and forced a trade to Denver by threatening to play Professional Baseball with the New York Yankees.

All team reports can be seen here- TEAM REPORTS

Team home page: www.denverbroncos.com