1st and 10 with DFF Week 11

1st and 10 with DFF Week 11 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 11-  May 30th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Michael Hughes for the new- “1st and 10 with DFF Week 10″.  Be sure to follow Michael on Twitter @thatshiftybloke

 

Utter-Fantasy #1) Give me two pieces of advice that a fantasy football owner should absolutely know, if starting in a Dynasty League for the first time in 2016.

DFF Response: (#1) First and foremost – and this is a bit of a gimme – do not draft a QB early (i.e., within the first 5 rounds). Let someone else take Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and/or Aaron Rodgers with a top-3 round pick. For every QB that gets drafted too early, that’s one more elite talent WR or RB that falls to you in later rounds. Quarterbacks like Eli, Romo, Rivers, and even Carr, can be had in the double digit rounds. By drafting skill position players with your first 8-10 picks, you give yourself the best opportunity to amass startable talent. Disclaimer: if you are in a 2QB/Superflex league, you can take a QB a little earlier.

(#2) Never, ever, under any circumstances, draft to “fill your starting lineup” before taking depth at a position. You have to make sure you are drafting the best players each and every time you are on the clock. The quickest way to ruin a team is to draft your starting tight end before you take your third wide receiver. Similar to the “best player available” strategy in rookie drafts, you need to be sure and draft the best skill player on the board. Depth is the key to a victorious team. (#3) BONUS: In dynasty leagues, strategy is different than what you may have seen in redraft leagues. For instance, you do not worry about bye weeks in dynasty leagues (after all, in dynasty you play for years and years – and bye weeks change every year). You’ll want to make sure you look at the big picture in dynasty leagues.

Utter-Fantasy #2) Only 6 wide receivers in 2015, had more touchdown receptions than CAR Ted Ginn Jr did, and he finished the season as the #18 wide out in the NFL. Fantasy football owners are very excited about the return of WR Kelvin Benjamin and understandably so. (In his rookie 2014 season, Benjamin had 1008 receiving yards and 9 TDs.) With TE Greg Olsen always a huge weapon in the Panther offense, is there any room for 2015- 2nd rounder WR Devin Funchess in their receiving corps?

DFF Response: I actually think there is room for Funchess, but no room for Ginn. I believe that Ted Ginn’s production in 2015 was solely due to opportunity – with Benjamin out, and Funchess having not emerged as a viable threat yet, Greg Olsen was the only real receiving threat the Panthers had. The Carolina offense was force-feeding Ginn the ball; and that likely will not happen in 2016. The target hierarchy goes: KB, Olsen, Funchess, then the rest, in my opinion. Don’t forget that Ted Ginn had a multitude of dropped passes (most, while he was not even covered by a defender). I firmly believe Ginn is not an elite WR. I would fade Ginn on your fantasy teams this year and buy into Devin Funchess, who clearly has the size and isn’t as much of a target squanderer. Funchess also has draft pedigree. I’m on board with Funchess in 2016.

Utter-Fantasy #3) In 2015, I warned fantasy football owners about drafting CAR RB Jonathon Stewart based on his injury history, QB Cam Newton’s running abilities especially near the goal line and the draft selection of RB Cameron Artis-Payne ( Round 5 of the 2015 NFL Draft.) I thought his ceiling would be close to his 2014 statistics of 812 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. Stewart was far better than I expected in 2015, with over 100 total yards and 7 total TDs. My concerns in 2016 however, are the same that they were in 2015, and I am going to double-down on my warning and those 2014 ceiling statistics. Do you think this is good or bad advice?

DFF Response: I believe that your advice is sound: steer clear of Jonathan Stewart this season. Stewart is a year older (again), and he’s entering an offense that is finally healthy. I don’t believe that Cameron Artis-Payne is the heir apparent, or a threat, but we have seen Carolina employ a slew of running backs to spell Stewart. Stewart may put up decent touchdown numbers, even though it isn’t something you can necessary predict, but I do not see him as a viable RB1 this year. Spend your money elsewhere.

Utter-Fantasy #4) DAL QB Tony Romo has made a lot of progress and has been throwing for the last month without issue. I don’t care. I think it’s inevitable that Romo will be injured again, early on, and hurt every fantasy football owner who drafts Dallas players ( except for RB Ezekiel Elliott, I think he’ll have a strong season regardless.)  When owners draft WR Dez Bryant, QB Romo and TE Witten early, I will silently be saying “thank you”. What will you be saying?

DFF Response: I’ll say what I always say: Pass! I have never been a believer in Dez Bryant, so I don’t look to draft him to begin with, especially where I would need to take him in drafts. He’s a good talent, but there are many other top talent receivers that I would rather have for the same price. As for Witten, he is a reliable tight end but he’s getting older and I believe that Dallas is looking to incorporate Gavin Escobar a lot more than they previously had. If Witten falls to me with one of my last picks in a draft, I’m interested; but only at that price. Tony Romo has been injury prone, for sure, but I’m still interested in the undrafted gunslinger. If I can select Romo later in the draft, I would be happy to do so. It’s a long shot that he’ll stay healthy, but I would rather be the Romo owner during the year that he remains healthy. I believe with the weapons around him, he is a sleeper (for the right price).

Utter-Fantasy #5) There is talk of the Dolphins having interest in free-agent RB Arian Foster. If Foaster ends up signing with Miami, and is somehow healthy for the start of the season, what’s your percentage that he ends up with the bulk of the carries for the Dolphins in 2016?

DFF Response: I don’t think Foster will carry the bulk of the load with any NFL team. If he signs in Miami, I believe he will be a 1 to 2 down back, working to spell RB Jay Ajayi who Miami is clearly looking to support. By drafting RB Kenyan Drake out of Alabama, I think Miami is sending a message that it has the future Dolphins running back(s) on the roster. Arian Foster will be a part-time RB if he signs in Miami, so I would pay a commensurate price for him. Do not overspend here!

Utter-Fantasy #6) ESPN believes Green Bay WR Jeff Janis is one of the “losers” of the offseason. Janis had a 7-145-2 game stat line from the Divisional Round in the 2015 playoffs, and HC McCarthy took some heat for not playing this man earlier in the season. WR Davante Adams is a constant disappointment and many don’t even consider his roster spot as a “sure thing”.  I believe fantasy owners will be kicking themselves if they do not draft Janis? Will you be recommending Janis?

DFF Response: I am not recommending Janis this year. Jordy Nelson is returning to a WR corps that has plenty of options for Aaron Rodgers. What concerns me with Janis is clearly the depth chart and glut of receivers in GB. Nelson and Cobb will occupy the top two spots, and then GB has Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, and Ty Montgomery, not to mention TE Jared Cook who stands to gain a lot of targets this year. Janis did flash some skill in that playoff game in 2015, but I do not know if the coaching staff will give him a fair amount of playing time and targets.

Utter-Fantasy #7) I hate the no group celebration rule and penalty for doing so, after a touchdown. Who would know Ickey Woods if not for the “Ickey Woods Shuffle?” I understand keeping sportsmanship in the game, but I think the Washington “Fun Bunch” celebration and the Ram’s “Bob’N Weave” added fun to the NFL, not unsportsmanlike conduct, don’t you?  ( DISCLAIMER: Never cared for the Atlanta “Dirty Bird” !)

DFF Response: I understand there has been a movement to eliminate the unsportsmanlike actions by players, but I think there needs to be some visible fun in the big plays. After all, this is a game. I would like to see the league move to allow for those group celebrations again. Even soccer does it…

Utter-Fantasy #8) Former Panther DB Josh Norman was one of the league’s best players in 2015, and Carolina probably could have resigned him but didn’t. Was this only about money, or do you think his personality AND particularly the altercations with WR Odell Beckham Jr in Week 15 last year could have played a big role in rescinded Norman’s franchise tag, making him a free agent?

DFF Response: I think it was about money. If Norman had accepted the offer that Carolina made, I do not believe we would be having this conversation about Norman’s proclivity toward the bombastic. Even during the Odell Beckham saga, Norman’s actions were downplayed by the team. As more information emerges from the fallout between Norman and the Panthers, it is pretty clear that Carolina’s management drew a line in the sand as it pertained to money and realized that they would be overspending via franchise tag and would have to significantly over pay to keep their stud DB. Carolina decided what it wanted to pay, and there was no wavering.

Utter-Fantasy #9) Some NFL players are known to be very superstitious. Some might listen to the same song every week, eat the same food before games or wear the same pair of socks over and over. Fantasy football owners can be just as superstitious. Do you have any draft day or game day rituals that we can tease you about later?

DFF Response: I usually watch NFL Redzone, which plays most of the high points of the games. But I have a serious suspicion about changing the channel when things are going well. I feel that once things are rolling I absolutely cannot change the channel because it will disrupt the good vibes and fantasy production. I also usually rock a Vikings jersey under all circumstances; hasn’t done much for Minny, but it sure has helped my fantasy squads!

Utter-Fantasy #10) Are you familiar with fantasy football insurance? Here’s one company’s pitch….”Protect your fantasy investment with fantasy football insurance”….then they add….”A serious injury, such as a concussion, can mean the end to a star player’s time on the field – and if that player is the star of your fantasy football team, then your season might be over too.” A great idea, or too absurd to catch on?

DFF Response: I can admit that I’ve never heard of fantasy football insurance. I actually think the idea is somewhat defeating – the point of fantasy football is to take chances and capitalize on the wealth of knowledge you have. Injuries obviously play a role in the NFL and, thus, in fantasy, and because of that you have certain opportunities that would not otherwise arise: you can buy low on injured players, for example, or you can beat a better team because its star player is hurt and can’t produce. Injuries, therefore, are just part of the game. I think that by using insurance, you are taking the fun out of the game. The highs and lows have to be left alone – you win some, you lose some! Remember not to take fantasy sports too seriously; it’s fantasy, after all!

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 10
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 9
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 8
1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 7
1st and 10 with DFF Week 6
1st and 10 with DFF Week 5
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 4
1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 10

1st and 10 with DFF Week 10 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

 

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 10-  May 23rd, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Michael Hughes for the new- “1st and 10 with DFF Week 10″.  Be sure to follow Michael on Twitter @thatshiftybloke

 

Utter-Fantasy #1) 1) PHIL QB Sam Bradford- FACT: If Bradford plays poorly, he will be yanked early in this season and it will be Wentz’s team going forward.

FACT or FICTION? : If Bradford plays well, and if Philadelphia is winning games, Wentz will not be the starter in 2016, despite being the #2 overall selection in the 2016 NFL Draft (and no matter how much the fans clamor for him.)

DFF Response) (A) Fact. The Eagles made a splash at the draft, trading up (twice) to ultimately nab the 2nd overall pick with the obvious and apparent intention of drafting the franchise’s quarterback of the future. GM Howie Roseman and others in the organization made that pretty clear in press conferences and statements all throughout the pre-draft and post-draft process. What is confusing to some is the fact that the team made a couple of plant-your-flag moves with three different QBs this offseason: signing Bradford to a lucrative extension; paying up big for what we expect to be backup QB Chase Daniel (who played for head coach Doug Pederson in Kansas City); and moving up big time in the draft to select Carson Wentz out of NDSU. It seems clear that the team is looking to solidify the position and back their guy. In this instance, with so much spent to move up to #2 in the draft, I think it is safe to say that Wentz is the clear cut favorite. If Bradford struggles this season – even for a little bit – you will see Carson Wentz for the duration of the year.

(B) I believe that Bradford has to play lights out to keep his job. Reading between the lines and dissecting the coach speak, it’s clear that the Eagles are no longer enamored with the Oklahoma product; they’re ready to move on. Bradford was the best of a bad lot when they traded for him; signed him; and signed him to an extension. Philly did not know or believe it would be able to trade up and select their future starter, so they had to shore up the position when Bradford was available. Look for that to change. If Bradford plays well enough for the team to win games consistently, he will keep his job. I expect to see Wentz in 2016.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)    Between 2009 and 2013, 12 quarterbacks total were selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft. To date, 7 are complete busts, 2 are struggling to stay in the NFL and only 3 are successful starting quarterbacks. In 2014, 2015 and 2016, 7 quarterbacks total were selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft. If Goff and Wentz go onto be as successful as Winston and Mariota, as expected, only Manziel will have failed to thrive at the NFL level. Do you think drafting a quarterback in the 1st round has become less of a gamble than if was between 2009 and 2013?

DFF Response) I think drafting anyone in the first round is a gamble. I say that, because first round draft picks – all first round draft picks –  are supposed to be sure things. NFL franchises are expected to have “gimme” selections that early in the draft. But unfortunately the pressure is very real when you are expected to select a no-brainer / can’t-miss prospect. That being said, I’m sure the Chargers will attest to how difficult the first round can be (see Ryan Leaf, number 2 overall, 1998 NFL draft). Thus, it is always a gamble. I know that scouting has gotten much better over the years and in fact there is an entire lucrative business to the draft, from trainers and agents, to merchandise and branding. As a Viking fan, I can tell you that Christian Ponder was as much of a gamble as any pick I’ve seen my team make in the last couple of years. The Vikings took him at 12 overall in 2011 and I was never confident that it was a great move, even if it was necessary for the team to do so. It would be flawed logic to say that the picks are less of a gamble now just because the prospects are hitting at a higher rate. If anything, it is a testament to the prospects themselves and the coaching regimes that are drafting them.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)  ESPN projects Cleveland and San Francisco to only win 3 games in 2016, and Miami to only win 4 games. I’m on board with their projections for the Browns and the 49ers, but I believe the Dolphins will win at least 6 games. What are your thoughts on all 3 teams?

DFF Response) The Browns are in rebuild mode, but they’re starting the rebuild on a positive note having just amassed a lot of draft capital by trading back in the first round. I think they’ve done themselves a great service by hiring Hue Jackson and I expect the team to make waves in a few years. San Francisco is going in the other direction. I do not believe the Chip Kelly experiment will work in SF because I don’t believe they currently have the personnel that Kelly wants/needs to succeed, and it all starts at QB. Expect them to be mediocre for a while. Miami is in a different boat; I actually like their head coach hiring. Adam Gase will come in and build upon an offense that had success at times last year. I believe Miami wins more than 3 games this year, but I do not believe they make the playoffs. Expect the offense to run smoothly, but the defense will be the linchpin. The defense has to fire on all cylinders; they are paid too much not to. If the defense can play well and avoid the colossal meltdowns of 2015, then Miami will be able to win more than a few games.

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  With RB DeMarco Murray out of town, Ryan Matthews is a huge sleeper for me in 2016, that few people are currently talking about. Am I right to be excited about his fantasy potential this season or is his current ADP ( #59th overall-#24 RB) where it should be?

DFF Response)  You’re absolutely right to be excited about Ryan Matthews in 2016. If you look at running backs under Doug Pederson in the past (I’m looking at you, all three KC Chiefs’ backs), it is clear that Pederson knows how to deploy running backs. Scheme and coaching says Matthews will succeed, but that’s not all. There is very little competition at the RB position in Philly this year. Darren Sproles will occupy the same role he always has, and that will not eat into Matthews’ carries. Kenjon Barner and Wendell Smallwood will both be given an opportunity to see the field, but they’re too green to come in and steal snaps from an established back like Matthews. All fantasy players should be looking to acquire Ryan Matthews in 2016.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  In most 2015 redraft leagues, QB Andrew Luck was the first quarterback selected and he clobbered fantasy football owners, playing in only 7 games. Luck declared himself fully healthy last month, and Indianapolis drafted 4 offensive linemen to protect him. He won’t be the #1 quarterback selected in 2016, but where is he in your current QB redraft rankings? Who would you recommend drafting as your QB, before drafting Luck?

DFF Response) I still have Luck in the top 3. For me, it goes Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and then Andrew Luck. I watched Luck in college and in the pros for the past few years, so I know what he is capable of doing. Too many fantasy players are scared off by what happened last year. Don’t let that recency bias manipulate your game plan. Remember the pedigree for Luck, and remember that he has as much natural talent as any QB in this league. He was injured last year and that resulted in a poor season, but that won’t happen every year. As always, the QB position is devalued somewhat in fantasy because there are many viable options on a weekly basis. If you do decide to draft a QB earlier than others, Luck is a fine option. Oh, did I mention that Indy beefed up its offensive line? Sign me up for Luck this year.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6) You’re a Dynasty league guy…I recent saw a dynasty league team owner offer THREE 1st round picks for the 2016 rookie 1.01 draft selection and was turned down. One owner obviously wants DAL RB Zeke Elliott very much, and the other owner will get him and won’t give him up. Who’s crazy here…..the guy offering THREE 1st round picks or the guy who turned him down?!

DFF Response) I think they’re both sane. Ezekiel Elliot is a rare bird; he has all of the God-given talent that you could ever, literally ever, ask someone to have. He also landed in the consensus top spot for running backs. It’s a match made in fantasy football heaven. The allure of dynasty fantasy football is that you can keep a player for their entire career if you so choose. Running backs are brittle, and last year demonstrated just how quickly you could lose your grip on that position if your guys get injured. Because of these truths, getting a stud young RB like Elliott or Todd Gurley is a slam dunk success. Thus, trading the world to go get Zeke is totally sane. So, too, is trading away the 1.01 for a complete windfall. Both sides are right – and both sides would be enriched by such a deal. I myself had two 1.01’s in the 2016 rookie drafts in different leagues. I traded one for AJ Green because I value him very highly in an offense with little competition for targets – and it is a start one RB league, so running backs are devalued even more. In another league where I am in full re-build mode for an orphan team I took over in 2015, I moved the 1.01 and Dorial Green-Beckham for Amari Cooper. I am confident that the trades will ultimately help all teams involved. In my two deals, I got top-tier wide receivers in point-per-reception (“PPR”) leagues; similarly, the other teams got the draft capital necessary to select one of the best running back prospects since Adrian Peterson. I call that mutually beneficial!

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) In current 10 team mock drafts, BUFF WR Sammy Watkins has overall been the 13th wide receiver selected, in front of such names as Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb, and TY Hilton. With all things considered, including recent foot surgery, is that too early for the Bill’s wide out?

DFF Response) I will preface this response by saying that Sammy Watkins is my man-crush. I try to acquire him in every single dynasty league I play in; he’s just that good to me. Naturally, with that backdrop, I will tell you that Watkins is every bit as valuable as the other names mentioned. I also understand that there is a big picture to account for. My advice is thus: if you are in a redraft league, you should pump the brakes on Watkins this year and not overspend for him. Remember that he is in a sub-par offensive scheme for wide receivers and he has a starting QB in Tyrod Taylor that may or may not keep his job. Sammy also just broke his foot and there are many questions surrounding his health and whether he will be back in time – oh, and don’t forget his history of foot and hip problems. If you are drafting for a one-year team as is the case in redraft leagues, then you should not select Watkins over guys like Demaryius Thomas. DT has already proven himself to be quarterback proof and reliable. However, if you are drafting in a dynasty league start up, then please feel free to take Watkins in the top 8 picks and feel great about doing so. All you need to do is look at his scouting tape and any of the many highlight reel catches he’s made. That will show you how valuable Watkins is and will continue to be. In conclusion: I love Watkins. If others in my leagues don’t want him, I will certainly scoop him up.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  A few of my disappointing fantasy football players from 2015 include Eddie Lacy, Melvin Gordon, Randall Cobb, Mike Evans ( 1208 receiving yards but only 3 TDs), QB Teddy Bridgewater, TE Jordan Cameron and Ladarius Green. Who else should be on my list?

DFF Response) Don’t forget to add Andrew Luck (see above) for his injury riddled lost 2015 campaign. I also throw DeMarco Murray on the pile here. Murray was the best running back in the league two years ago and then last year completely fell asleep at the wheel of his offensive production. Chip Kelly’s coaching and offensive scheme did not help Murray at all, but even when he was given chances to succeed he completely missed the mark. He owes me a lot of touchdowns this year.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) The 49ers locker room bought into QB Blaine Gabbert at the end of the 2015, as he led them to 3 wins in their last 8 games. QB Colin Kaepernick stirred the pot early in 2016 by requesting out of San Francisco. Even if “Kaep” gets an attitude adjustment and plays better than Gabbert in training camp …….can this ever really be “his” team again?

DFF Response) No, I don’t believe it can be Kaep’s team again. Chip Kelly essentially guaranteed as much when he publicly spoke out in favor of Gabbert. Kelly has a history of poor professional player relations: you can ask most of the guys on the 2015 Philadelphia Eagles about that. Kelly has recently begun to mend the fences with Kaepernick, but I think that is more going through the motions than genuine desire to having a working relationship with the (former) starting QB. Kaep wants out, Kelly wants Kaep out, and most people in the Niners’ building want a new start, so look for Kaepernick to ride the pine this year, or ultimately make an exit from San Fran soon.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10) Give me a brief comment on each of these tight end moves to a new team in 2016.……

• A) Ben Watson to Baltimore-

• B) Jared Cook to Green Bay-

• C) Ladarius Green to Pittsburgh-

• D) Coby Fleener to New Orleans-

DFF Response) A) Ben Watson seemed like the ageless wonder last year when he made the league’s most resounding comeback in a Drew Brees-led offense. Watson’s numbers were gaudy in 2015 and he single-handedly won fantasy weeks for many people. I expect that his production will decidedly drop off in 2016. Let’s look at the factors: different QB, different offensive system, many more receiving threats/weapons/options than the Saints had; and there is the little matter of the future of TE Maxx Williams, on whom the Ravens spent significant draft capital last year. Sell now on Watson, if you still can.

(B) Jared Cook will likely have the best season of his career in GB; that’s not saying much considering Cook couldn’t definitively hold on to the top TE spot in St. Louis/LA where his competition was Lance Kendricks. I mean, come on. Aaron Rodgers likes using his TEs, but hasn’t been able to lately because of the poor play of that group. I think Cook will be a reliable option for Rodgers and I would look to acquire him if the price isn’t too steep.

(C) Ladarius Green landed in the ideal spot for an emerging TE. Pittsburgh will look to use Green in much the same way they used Heath Miller for so many years. That alone bodes very well for Green. Besides, Green is very athletically gifted and he will be spirited to be out from under the shadows of Antonio Gates. The price for Green has skyrocketed, so I don’t think it’s a smart buy at this point in time because the asking price is way too high. However, if you have him then congratulations – you’re about to step in to TE1 territory.

(D) Coby Fleener was Andrew Luck’s roommate in college and presumably one of the QB’s best friends on the team. And Fleener still stunk up the joint. I know, I know: Fleener had to contend with Dwayne Allen in Indy, too. That’s fair, but I don’t think he is an elite tight end. I am not a Fleener truther and I don’t believe in his talent. I do, however, believe in his new landing spot. Brees loves the TE (see Ben Watson, two paragraphs above). Fleener is a sleeper this year based solely on the anticipated number of red zone targets he will likely receive this year. Good luck!

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 9
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 8
1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 7
1st and 10 with DFF Week 6
1st and 10 with DFF Week 5
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 4
1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 9

1st and 10 with DFF Week 9 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

 

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 9-  May 16th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Michael Hughes. Be sure to follow Michael on Twitter @thatshiftybloke

 

Utter-Fantasy #1) Because WR DeSean Jackson hasn’t played a 16 game season since joining Washington, and WR Pierre Garcon is 30 years old this year, can first-round WR Josh Doctson become the #1 receiver for QB Kirk Cousins this season?

DFF Response) DeSean Jackson was a perennial WR1 once he gained his footing in Philadelphia, despite the criticism that he was only a “home-run hitter,” a receiver that excels on deep passing routes and has little to no other relevance in the offense. Since joining Washington, he has been much more of the traditional deep-ball threat. As noted, he has also been plagued by the injury bug. Pierre Garcon’s yearly statistics have declined since his breakout year in 2013 in the Nation’s Capital. The perception on Garcon is that his abilities are dwindling due to age, fatigue, etc. The reality is that Garcon has occupied the same space on the teams he’s played for: he is a reliable WR with veteran prowess, which makes him the ideal target for his quarterback during crunch time, while running the two-minute offense, or trying to convert a 3rd and short. DJax and Garcon will in all likelihood continue to garner a decent number of targets in 2016. QB Kirk Cousins is looking for another prolific offensive year in order to cash in with a lucrative, long-term contract. That last note bodes well for Doctson, who will be thrust into the offense as a wiry WR with skills, above average hands and footwork, and lots of size. As we’ve seen in the traditional Jay Gruden offense, the WR1 is typically drowning in targets, receptions, and opportunities to make big plays (see: AJ Green, 2012-2013). Doctson has draft pedigree, having been selected 22nd overall by Washington in this year’s draft. Gruden obviously likes what he’s seen from the 6’2”, 202-pound product from TCU. The stars are aligned for Josh Doctson to come into camp, solidify his position within the offense as a large bodied wideout with good hands, and make a real name for himself early in the ‘Skins offense. I like Doctson’s chances to finish 2016 as the #1 receiver in Washington.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)    As an owner of at least one Dynasty League team, did you have any of your players’ fantasy stock get clobbered by an NFL team’s draft selection in 2016? ( If not, you must know someone who did?)

DFF Response) The three-headed monster of Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, and Lance Dunbar all took a collective hit with the Cowboys’ selection of Ezekiel Elliott from Ohio State at number four overall. Many dynasty owners were holding on to McFadden by a thread, recognizing that he has an injury-riddled past and that he is getting up there in age. Last year’s performance warranted keeping McFadden on your bench and many owners did just that, hoping to eke out one more year of fantasy production. Unfortunately for McFadden owners, Easy E is now in the Big D and will spell certain doom for McFadden’s fantasy output. Similarly, Alfred Morris owners were invigorated by the fact that a now older, veteran back with questionable catching ability had landed on a team with a great run-blocking offensive line. The shine on Morris was buffed out almost immediately, as the team drafted college’s top running back. Lance Dunbar – had you forgotten about him? – was also in position to be Dallas’ top pass-catching back. He had demonstrated a penchant for catching passes out of the backfield in previous years and it seemed logical that he would slide right back into that role. At present, it seems that Dallas is committed to Elliott and will give the Buckeye product the lion’s share of the carries and, likely, the majority of passes, too. If you own any of the other Dallas RBs, you’re likely going to have some dead roster weight this upcoming season.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)  Who is going to win the NFC East Division and why?

DFF Response) As of May 2016, my money is on Dallas to win the NFC East. Forget what you know about the 2015 Cowboys and think back to the Cowboys teams of 2013 and 2014. Last year was an anomaly; Dez Bryant was injured for most of the year and Tony Romo couldn’t stay on the field, either. Going into next season, Dallas has its top offensive weapons available and healthy – and as mentioned above, they’ve added a top-tier running back to play behind the league’s scariest O-line. If their defense can avoid a total meltdown week in and week out, the team can make some noise. By exclusion, if you look at New York, Philly, and Washington, you see some shortcomings that may derail those teams’ seasons. Philly is going to adapt to a new head coach, a muddied quarterback room, and many new faces. Pragmatically speaking, there is much more than just X’s and O’s to digest in Philadelphia, and I believe that will ultimately keep them from winning the division. Not too dissimilarly, the Giants will be directed by first-time head coach Ben McAdoo this year. Although McAdoo is not a new face to the organization, it will be the first time that the former NYG O-Coordinator will be calling all of the shots. Add to that the uncertainty on defense, and there is just enough fuel to flame the fires of doubt for the G-Men. Finally, Washington, the defending NFC East champions, will seek to win their second straight division title. Unfortunately, I do not see the absolutely eye-popping numbers for QB Kirk Cousins continuing this year. Cousins is a good QB and he will be just fine, but he won’t blow the doors off the arena each week like he did during the tail-end of the 2015 season. Running back Matt Jones will need to step-up and convince the league that he can carry the load for a team that seeks to run the ball a decent amount. All in all, I believe Washington falls just shy of its goal of repeating as champs.

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  How do you see the saga with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets ultimately playing out?

DFF Response)  If you had asked me this question in April 2016, prior to the draft, I would have brushed it off and exclaimed that there is nothing to see: Fitz will be a Jet in 2016. However, with the Jets-Fitzpatrick contract standoff and the team’s recent decision to select Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg in the draft, I am a little less confident that Fitzpatrick starts for GangGreen next year. Recently, long-time Fitz supporter WR Brandon Marshall even said that the team can win without Fitzpatrick. Many draftniks regailed us with tales of the Jets’ in-depth scouting of Hackenberg, which apparently started as early as Christian’s freshman year at PSU. Given the team’s recent failures at drafting a signal caller, one would think that they wouldn’t take a chance on a questionable prospect again (a la Geno Smith out of WVU, and then Bryce Petty out of Baylor). By taking Hackenberg, the Jets are looking to silence the critics who believe the team is habitually unable to scout QB talent. Hackenberg may not be the answer in New York. Whatever happens, though, it seems more and more likely that the Jets are calling Fitzpatrick’s bluff. I don’t believe Fitz-Magic calls plays in New York in 2016.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  The newer owners in the NFL are “OK” with a team moving to Las Vegas, while the veteran owners are opposed to a team in “Sin City” because of the distractions and vices that may be prevalent there. Are the veteran owners just being “grumpy old men” about a team in Las Vegas?

DFF Response) There are two types of NFL owners: Old NFL and New NFL. The New NFL ownership groups are looking to capitalize on all possible football-centric revenue streams, including new media, merchandising, etc. These owners are less fixated on the shield/NFL logo, and are more concerned with the entertainment aspect of the sport. Old NFL is looking to capitalize as well, but on its own terms. The history of the NFL shows us that owners have been relatively stingy and tight with the purse strings, often passing up innovation in favor of the comfortable, familiar ways of the past. Old-school owners want to control every part of the NFL’s day to day business and they want to do so on their own terms. A professional team in Las Vegas would be a new occurrence and, as with anything that hasn’t been seen before, there is no way to game plan or prepare for each and every scenario that will follow. Older owners are not keen on being ill-prepared for major events like a new team in a vice-haven like Las Vegas. Thus, I don’t believe the older NFL owners are telling the new owners to get off their lawn; instead, they’re moving cautiously and calculating all of the risks involved.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6) Can a person be in “too many” fantasy football here leagues?

DFF Response) Yes, an owner can be in too many fantasy football leagues, but what constitutes “too many leagues” is really a personal preference. To each his own. There is no one-size-fits-all portfolio of fantasy teams/leagues. My advice would be to look in the mirror and be honest with yourself: can you handle the number of leagues you’re currently in? If so, would you be able to add another league without it siphoning resources and attention from your other leagues and from your life as a whole. Despite the fact that fantasy football is a hobby, it requires a lot of attention and energy. This is magnified in dynasty leagues, which typically run year-round and allow for trading and scheming in the off-season. I like to devote a good amount of time to each team I manage and I get to know my rosters very well. I am always aware of bye weeks, roster limits, roster construction, positions of weakness, and positions of strength. I also endeavor to identify the tendencies of other owners. As you can imagine, there is a lot of work going in to each team and if you have other responsibilities it can become a chore. My advice to each owner is this: take on as many teams as you are comfortable managing without feeling like setting your lineup, reviewing the waiver wire, and evaluating trades has become work. You want this to be fun, so don’t allow fantasy football to become an inconvenience.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) What are your thoughts on the fantasy sports websites FanDuel and Draft Kings and the legislation trying to shut them down?

DFF Response) Gambling has always been an issue with major sports in America, and that will likely never change. Fantasy football connoisseurs work to differentiate fantasy sports from traditional gambling. The main argument is that fantasy sports requires some amount of skill, whereas placing a wager on which team will win is decidedly different. Regardless of which side of the fence you fall on, the particular legislature in each state will decide – as it often does – what it believes is safe and beneficial to its residents. For me, the main concern with sites like FanDuel and Draft Kings has to be the role it plays on those with gambling addictions and the inability to exercise self-discipline. It is obvious that you can lose money quicker in daily fantasy sports than yearly sports because of the timeframe of each league or contest. With daily fantasy you enter and win or lose at the conclusion of the games in question, whereas with season long fantasy football you do not find out whether you’ve won until the end of the year. For these reasons, a player needs to know his or her limits. If you can’t afford to play and lose with daily fantasy sports leagues, then the season-long route is the way to go.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  Would you rather be…… the new NFL Commissioner or a short-lived, but very successful NFL quarterback?

DFF Response) I would personally prefer to the NFL Commissioner. The rationale here is simple: money aside – and both positions are paid well, verily – I have a passion for football that would be best addressed in the league offices. As commissioner you can leave your stamp on the league and further the efforts of innovations. The longevity of getting to act as commissioner is enticing, too, as opposed to playing in the league for a short time. For me, the opportunity to effect regulation and rule making over a longer period of time is more appealing than having been the successful player.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) PITT RB DeAngelo Williams was a fantasy stud in 2015, filling in for RB LeVeon Bell. Make the case that he is more than just a handcuff, if LeVeon Bell is 100% in 2016.

DFF Response) Stud running backs like LeVeon Bell typically do it all: they rush well, they catch passes, and they play all three downs. The reason many backup running backs are only seen as handcuffs, and thus do not possess stand-alone player value, is because they are not expected to play many snaps and by extension will not put up stunning fantasy numbers. It usually takes a unique situation, such as injury to a top player or garbage time offensive snaps, for a role player or backup to gain any exposure. Without that limited window of opportunity, few backups get the chance to shine. When LeVeon Bell missed multiple games in 2015 due to suspension and injury, DeAngelo Williams was given the opportunity to demonstrate his value. He did just that, amassing 907 rushing yards and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns. He also added 40 catches for 367 yards. Those sure look like RB1 numbers to me. We all expect LeVeon to return to the starting role, but is D-Will still going to be relegated to back-up duties? I think that he has shown enough to warrant more playing time. Pittsburgh and offensive coordinator Todd Haley have not been shy in the past and I believe that DeAngelo Williams will benefit from a larger complement of plays where the goal is to get him the ball, be it via pass or run. NFL teams value versatility, ball control, and vision. Williams has all of that and I believe the Steelers will reward him with more playing time than the average back up RB.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10) It is well-known that WR Wes Welker has had multiple concussion injuries, but the free agent still wants to play in the NFL. After a certain number of these types of injuries, should the league be able to tell a player that they are not allowed to play anymore, even if a competent doctor clears them to play?

DFF Response) The most important aspect of this situation is safety. Competent doctors must evaluate a player and determine if playing football is still an option. Ultimately, it is the league’s responsibility to protect players. As we have seen with other changes to the game, the goal is now to make the NFL safer and that very well may lead to certain instances where teams may keep players out of games for health interests.

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 8
1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 7
1st and 10 with DFF Week 6
1st and 10 with DFF Week 5
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 4
1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 8

1st and 10 with DFF Week 8 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

 

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 8-  May 9th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Michael Vincent. Be sure to follow Michael on Twitter @MVtweetshere

 

Utter-Fantasy #1) I believe Robert Griffin III has something to prove, and that he’ll be surprisingly successful in 2016. Furthermore, I believe that he will easily hold off veteran QB McCown and 3rd Round Draft pick USC’s Cody Kessler for the entire year. How do you think he fairs this season?

DFF Response) I need to agree with you here. So many quarterbacks over the last few seasons have had a career resurgence with a change of scenery. That has gone for veterans and younger players that did not get a chance to showcase their talents at their first landing spot. Players like Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been left for dead over and over, but continue to produce into their mid-thirties and both arguably had their best seasons in 2015. Palmer was 35, on his third team and 13th season. Fitzpatrick did it in his 11th season at age 33 on his sixth stop! Let’s not forget about the greatest free agent signing of all time, Drew Brees, resurrecting his career in New Orleans after being shown the door in San Diego to make way for Philip Rivers. Tyrod Taylor was a relative afterthought as a backup in Baltimore before signing with Buffalo prior to the 2015 season and beating out E.J. Manuel for the starting spot. What RGIII did in 2012 was not an accident. There was a reason he burst onto the scene. Bad luck, injuries, and an odd coaching situation left him in no-man’s land last year, and it didn’t help him that Kirk Cousins took the starting job and never looked back. Griffin may get a chance to do it all over again in for Cleveland with the likes of Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Gary Barnidge and a trio of rookie receivers in Corey Coleman, Rashard Higgins and Jordan Taylor. A purge of negativity and distractions in Cleveland over the last few years may bode well for Griffin, who could be the answer that so many others have tried to be.  (Answered by DFF’s @mvtweetshere)

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)    I thought the Alabama RB Derrick Henry selection by the Titans was a questionable selection to make because he reminds me a back that they “already have” in DeMarco Murray. (Henry is a downhill runner who has an underrated burst and can break off long runs). Does Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott who was selected by Dallas, remind you of anyone?

DFF Response) From a physical stand point Elliott reminds me of Matt Forte. Their metrics are comparable in terms of size and agility. In terms of running, Zeke reminds me of a faster version of Doug Martin. His landing spot is not comparable to anyone though. I feel as if the 1.01 in rookie draft is more valuable this year than it has been a long time.   (Answered by DFF’s IDP Guru @DFF_Josh)

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)  Do you think Cincinnati did in enough in free agency and the 2016 NFL Draft to replace who they lost in their receiving corps?

DFF Response) The Bengals lost Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones to free agency after both became too expensive to keep around. Both seemed to want WR1 money, but landed in very questionable situations in Atlanta and Detroit, where Sanu goes from A.J. Green’s shadow to Julio Jones shadow for the Falcons, and Jones goes to Detroit where he will spend the better part of his prime being compared to Calvin Johnson. The Bengals may miss them in terms of athleticism and skill set, but they will not have trouble filling the 152 targets that departed this offseason. Jones had the second most targets on the team in 2015, trailing only A.J. Green, but Sanu was the fifth most targeted Bengal, behind Green, Jones, tight end Tyler Eifert and running back Giovani Bernard. Their departures will be filled in a twofold process. First, Eifert and Bernard’s role will most likely expand in 2016. Eifert was a red zone machine last season, coming down with 13 touchdown catches and should only continue to get better if he’s used everywhere on the field. Bernard will continue to thrive in his change-of-pace role, unless Jeremy Hill becomes a more well-rounded back (and stops fumbling.) The other side of the coin is the younger players stepping up, most notably rookie second round pick Tyler Boyd and second year wide receiver Mario Alford. In my opinion, Boyd had the best landing spot among all the rookie receivers and should thrive in a role that fits his style of play. Brandon LaFell was also brought in as a free agent and may be able to carve himself a role in the offense if no one steps up. The lazy answer is MORE AJ GREEN, of course.  (Answered by DFF’s @mvtweetshere)

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  Former HC Tom Coughlin has stated many times now that he’s not ready to retire and would like another team to coach. I think it would be interesting to see Jon Gruden coach again. Is there a former head coach you’d like to see in the NFL again?

DFF Response) Of all the great recent NFL coaches to run an NFL franchise, Tony Dungy is one I’d like to see return. Not only was he the first African-American coach to win a Super Bowl, but he also was intuitive enough to design his own defense–Tampa 2–with a completely different team. Dungy’s philosophy would easily adapt to the modern NFL. In fact, he would most likely be on the forefront of the newest craze, similar to the read-option explosion a few years back.  (Answered by DFF’s Giants truther and Pigskin Paradise WR1 hoarder @DFF_Rich)

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  Was it too early for Indianapolis to take a center in the 1st Round, 18th overall selection in the 2016 NFL Draft? (I thought it was a great selection because they needed a good one for QB Andrew Luck)

DFF Response) According to Matt Zenitz of AL.com, there was only one Pro Day attended by both Indianapolis Colts general manager Ryan Grigson and Colts coach Chuck Pagano. That was for Ryan Kelly, the former Tide center whom Indianapolis selected in the first round of the NFL draft last week (No. 18 overall). The Colts had targeted Kelly “for months” leading up to the draft, Grigson told reporters in Indianapolis during a news conference last week.  I don’t think it’s a reach if it’s a glaring need. They targeted him, they scouted him tremendously, and they got him. He was the top ranked center in this draft (25th overall) and had a round 1-2 grade, according to CBS Sports. To put it in perspective, the second ranked center in the draft was ranked 65th overall among all players and received a round 2-3 grade. Only six centers had a projected draft selection of 6-7th or better. They took the best available player at a position that they drastically needed , and he would not have been there the next time around for the Colts, who did not pick again until the 57th pick of the draft. (Answered by DFF’s @mvtweetshere)

 

Utter-Fantasy #6) Some talented tight ends were grabbed in this recent draft, with a couple being calling “can’t miss” selections, but people were saying that last year about Baltimore’s Maxx Williams and in 2014 about Detroit’s Eric Ebron. Would you agree that the tight end is a very capricious position in the NFL and least lends itself to the predictability of “can’t miss” players?

DFF Response) Due to the fantasy aspect, more attention is brought to the lack of immediate success from younger tight ends. While success early in a player’s career is always welcomed, it should not be expected from this position during the first two, and sometimes even three years in the league. In dynasty, these players make great stashes, as their values will likely depreciate after the rookie draft in the same way a car loses value once you drive it off the lot. The term “can’t miss” is used to create more buzz around the draft and to draw in hopeful fans but it is still accurate when referring to some of these tight end prospects in the same regard as quarterbacks or offensive lineman who receive the same praise. (Answered by DFF’s Mock Draft expert @DFF_Zach)

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) The Broncos selected QB Paxton Lynch with the 26th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The last time Denver selected a QB late in the 1st round, was big bust Tebow in 2010. Why will this selection turn out better for the Broncos?

DFF Response) I do not believe that Tebow was a bust for the Broncos; he took over in 2011 and led the team to the playoffs after taking over a team that was 1-4. He was then traded after Denver signed Manning. It’s hard to argue that he could have been better than Manning and I won’t even begin to try to do that. I do think Lynch will turn out to be a better pick then Tebow because the Broncos have that defense behind him. We saw that defense take a worn down, beat up and bad QB in Manning and win a Super Bowl. Another thing that is playing into Lynch’s favor is the fact that he has two dynamic wide receivers at his disposal in Sanders and Thomas, as well as a running game that turned it on towards the end of the year. That defense will allow Lynch to go through growing pains and yet still succeed. The last move notable deal Elway did for a QB was getting Peyton Manning and we all saw how that turned out. Even if Lynch doesn’t start immediately, he’ll be able to sit back and learn from Mr. Butt Fumble. The reigns will be handed over to him at some point. The Broncos front office and coaching staff are a very smart group and they know what they have in Lynch. I see them putting him in the game when all parties agree he’s matured and ready to be an NFL quarterback.   (Answered by DFF’s ADP Grunt Austin Brunk @DFF_Brunkie21)

 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  Defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh was clearly a disappointment ( if not a bust) for Miami last season, especially considering his monstrous contract he got and now his teammates are “privately steamed” about the high-priced defensive tackle skipping voluntary workouts. Don’t you think for many players, that they lose a ton of their competitiveness, when money is never again an issue….or themselves or for any of their family members….for generations to come?

DFF Response) SUHHHHHHHHH, being a lions fan I was able to watch his best and some of his worst moments. I think there are many athletes that tend to skip voluntary workouts, whether it be due to contract negations, or them not wanting to workout with the team and more so with their personal trainer. We hear examples of it all the time. This is just Suh being Suh. He had a down year in 2015 mainly because he wasn’t surrounded by the same defensive weapons as he was around in Detroit. I guess we’ll see how it plays out this year. I do think many players find their competitiveness level drops due to a huge contract signing. The contract he signed sets up his family for years to come as long as he’s able to manage it properly and not waste it all. I think Suh was playing his hardest to get that pay day and he deserved it. While in Detroit, he played at his tip top game. All I know is he’s set for life and loved ones are as well. (Answered by DFF’s ADP Grunt @DFF_Brunkie21

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) How do you think the NFL justifies paying Commissioner Roger Goodell “twice as much” as the highest paid player in the league?

DFF Response) I think the NFL justifies Roger Goodell salary with a few factors. First, according to the CBA, his job as commissioner covers a large range of responsibilities, resulting in a great amount of power being bestowed upon him. In decisions that lack precedence, he is the one to set the precedent for a multibillion dollar industry, which, I imagine, can be quite difficult on many different levels. Second, outside of players that transcend their local media markets, Goodell is a public figure who is probably the most widely recognized person associated with the NFL, which often makes him the first person to receive blame in situations where something goes wrong. Finally, he is tasked with tough decisions that will almost always result in some people disagreeing with him, especially in areas involving disciplinary action. Ultimately, it is a stressful job that requires tough decisions be made, often in a timely manner, in high pressure situations. (Answered by “the treasurer” DFF’s @2A4T3T Graham)

 

Utter-Fantasy #10) Despite Seattle drafting 3 rookie running backs, I still think that if he’s 100% in the pre-season, that fantasy football owners can draft RB Thomas Rawls confidently for the 2016 season. What are your thoughts now RB Rawls?

DFF Response) In terms of what I saw in 2015, albeit a small sample size, I fully believe that Rawls will have the opportunity to prove that he can carry the load for Seattle. There have been several positive comments coming from HC Carroll regarding Rawls which only helps to strengthen my belief. It obviously comes down to whether Rawls can take his opportunity. As a runner he proved extremely dynamic and effective when given the chance last year, and it is my belief that he will continue to do so in ’16. Whilst his UDFA status seems to be the main reason for doubt, I believe him to be an exception to many norms and don’t see Seattle factoring this in. 2016 draft pick RB Prosise looks a talented player, although his initial role will predominantly be as a pass catcher, and I see it as unlikely he will progress beyond this in the short term. Due particularly with the importance of pass protection and the difficulty that rookies tend to have picking this up. I would say that Prosise has a chance long term to prove himself as more than a pass catcher, so would see him as a more valuable dynasty asset than a season long, and would feel very confident in Thomas Rawls in 2016, if he shows up to preseason 100% healthy. (Answered by DFF’s Trade Machine, Rawls truther @dckeyte)

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

 

1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 7
1st and 10 with DFF Week 6
1st and 10 with DFF Week 5
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 4
1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 7

1st and 10 with DFF Week 7 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 7-  May 5th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Michael Vincent. Be sure to follow Michael on Twitter @MVtweetshere

 

Utter-Fantasy #1) Many speculated that Denver would take QB Paxton Lynch in the 2016 NFL Draft, and that’s who they got. They now head into the season with QB Mark Sanchez as the week 1 starter and Lynch possibly under center later in the season. Is Denver content with their roster now, or do you anticipate any more movement at the quarterback position between now and the season opener.

DFF Response) I think content is probably the right word. Denver survived last season with a subpar quarterback play for most of the year with Brock Osweiler and Peyton Manning under center. They went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl on the back of their defense and relegated Manning, Osweiler, and then Manning again to effective game manager, making enough plays not to lose. While that formula can eventually blow up in their face, that defense is in their prime and they could probably get by with Sanchez doing just enough and Lynch developing in that system long enough to have a successful 2016. If Sanchez can bring any semblance of consistency and the defense plays at the level they did last year, they are a shoo- in to compete for a playoff spot. If Sanchez costs them games, and Lynch is brought in much quicker than anticipated, that’s when there may be the need to bring in another arm. Street free agent quarterbacks come by the bushel, so perhaps some camp competition for Sanchez while Lynch learns the system. Coach Kubiak will rely on the running game and defense regardless.

 

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)   Fantasy football has helped the NFL become the most popular sport in America, and it is not even close. Is it there an opportunity now to re-examine the possibility of another league, such as the United Football League, that failed to catch on before?

DFF Response) I don’t think so. What makes the NFL so popular through fantasy football are the people in the NFL. All of the characters, athletes, heroes, villains – narratives, storylines, and emotional attachment to players for whatever reason. Fantasy football builds a bridge of an investment that goes beyond the game. There is no chance the UFL, or whatever else would spring up, could ever compete with the NFL and what it has to offer. They own a day of the week because of who and what they are. The NFL is where it is because of the people involved and the fact that they are the greatest athletes in the world, not the other way around.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)  DeMarco Murray says that he “loves” the selection of Derrick Henry in the second round of the NFL draft. He’s got to be a little disappointed…right? ( Who ever WANTS to split carries?)

DFF Response) Murray may be trying a different approach after a humbling 2015 season. He is saying the right thing and looks like he is saying what is in the best interest of the team and what may bring him competition. The answer is yes, after thinking he’d be the lead dog again in Tennessee, he may be in a situation where he is splitting touches and snaps on the field with the rookie. Hard to imagine Tennessee using a second round pick on a player that is not their immediate future, but with so many picks in 2016, they may have been looking to stock up at the position. Tennesse couldn’t pass up on the value. Can’t fault the Titans for looking ahead as DeMarco is 28 and came off his most unproductive season as a starter. Henry will push him in camp and it will ultimately lead to the same headaches any RBBC creates.

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  Rotoworld’s Evan Silva gave the 49ers the worst grade of the 2016 NFL Draft for drafting of these players….do you agree?

1 (7). Oregon DE DeForest Buckner
1 (28). Stanford OG Josh Garnett
3 (68). Mississippi State CB Will Redmond
4 (133). LSU CB Rashard Robinson
5 (142). Appalachian State DE Ronald Blair
5 (145). Georgia OT John Theus
5 (174). Ole Miss OT Fahn Cooper
6 (207). Louisiana Tech QB Jeff Driskel
6 (211). Florida RB Kelvin Taylor
6 (213). Michigan State WR Aaron Burbridge
7 (249). Western Kentucky Prince Charles Iworah

DFF Response) What jumps out is the lack of immediate contributors after Buckner and Garnett; even Garnett at 28 was a stretch considering they traded up to get him. For the amount of picks, the sheer volume of new faces does not address any immediate needs except depth, with very little guarantee that all of the picks end up on the 53-man roster after camp. My sleeper in the draft and a player that I have targeted in the late rounds is Michigan State WR Aaron Burbridge, who may surprise people by winning a receiving job over the likes of Eric Rogers, Bruce Ellington and Deandre Smelter. Burbridge was a machine for the Spartans last season as they won the Big Ten Championship and may thrive in Chip Kelly’s system.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  Rotoworld’s Evan Silva gave the Ravens the best grade  of the 2016 NFL Draft for drafting of these players….do you agree? ( Note: Only one true wide receiver selected in this draft for the Ravens, and not until the 4th Round)

1 (6). Notre Dame LT Ronnie Stanley
2 (42). Boise State OLB Kamalei Correa
3 (70). BYU DE Bronson Kaufusi
4 (104). Temple CB Tavon Young
4 (107). Cincinnati WR Chris Moore
4 (130). Nebraska OT Alex Lewis
4 (132). Michigan DT Willie Henry
4 (134). Louisiana Tech RB Kenneth Dixon
5 (146). Grand Valley State DE Matt Judon
6 (182). Navy ATH Keenan Reynolds
6 (209). Virginia CB Maurice Canady

DFF Response) The Ravens addressed many needs that they had including both lines, the secondary and the pass rush. The Kenneth Dixon draft pick is an interesting one and it makes me think they are not sold on Buck Allen to be the future at the position. Along with Allen and Dixon, the Ravens will open camp with Justin Forsett, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Terrance West and Trent Richardson. Other than that pick, Baltimore did what some teams failed to do, which was filling as many needs as possible in one draft class. Sixth round pick Keenan Reynolds out of Navy will be a fun player to watch as he is listed as a receiver but played quarterback in college.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6) Dallas came in last in their division in 2015 because they did not have a reliable back up for QB Tony Romo. In my opinion, they still don’t. Do you agree?

DFF Response) I agree that they don’t have a reliable backup, however they do have a Schrödinger’s cat in Dak Prescott now. I think that if Romo goes down again the team is better equipped to succeed in a short term situation without him with Zeke and a healthy Dez. If another long term injury occurred I’d like to see the Cowboys spend a little money on a guy like Fitzpatrick if he holds out through the season. If Romo goes down again this season for considerable time there’s no doubt the Cowboys will go all out for a QB of the future in 2017 with what’s projecting to be a much better crop of quarterbacks.  ( Answered by DFF Pigskin Paradise’s Justin McCasland @MacLandJ )

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) No NFL team addressed their offense like the Rams did in the 2016 NFL Draft with the selections of Cal QB Jared Goff, TE Tyler Higbee, WR Pharoh Cooper, TE Temarrick Hemingway, and WR Michael Thomas.  in the 2016 NFL Draft, With with the exception of RB Todd Gurley and WR Tavon Austin, LA could be putting an entirely new offense on the field in 2016, which includes the rookie QB. Can they be competitive at all in the NFC West or should they just be given a pass this season?

DFF Response) Every year, each organization, from players to GM, will tell you that they plan on winning the Super Bowl. While it’s a given that these teams will always try their best, being competitive in a division with the Cardinals and Seahawks may be difficult with a handful of rookies joining the offense. That being said, the Rams did a great job of reloading their offense with immense talent. Goff is clearly the best quarterback in this class and, while he may not see immediate success, he will certainly have plenty of opportunities to hone his skills as the expected starter for the 2016 season. Pharoh Cooper is a perfect match for the Rams as his skill set has been compared to Tavon Austin. Conversely, Michael Thomas may be one of the best true receivers in this class and could quickly win the starting position over Britt and Quick who are only signed through 2016. Adding depth at the tight end was a big need after the Rams released veteran Jared Cook. Both Hemingway and Higbee are considered move tight ends and should be used heavily in the passing game. Outside of Hunter Henry, Higbee is the best tight end prospect to be drafted this year and, despite his off-field legal issues, should still see plenty of playing time. The bottom line is that the Rams needed more offensive talent and they were fortunate enough to draft some of the best talent available in a fairly thin draft class. ( Answered by DFF’s Zach Van Kirk @DFF_Zach )

 

Utter-Fantasy #8) In a surprising move right after the draft, the Bears released OG Matt Slauson, who finished No. 18 in Pro Football Focus’ 2015 guard ratings and only allowed one sack in 16 starts last season. If he’s unemployed for a week I’d be even more surprised…how about you?

DFF Response) It was a strange move but it looks like they’ve drafted their future left guard in Whitehair. He wasn’t an issue in the locker room and he has helped mentor some of the younger players, but it may just be the case of an older player from a previous regime that does not fit in the future plans for Chicago. He has already made visits to other teams such as San Diego and Buffalo and will find a landing spot before training camp. He is 30, which is not that old for offensive linemen and his productive 2015 will help him latch on somewhere. The Bears are gambling on their depth and may look silly if they lose any of their projected starting guards without at least letting Slauson earn his spot in 2016. With Slauson gone, only Kyle Long remains from the 2013 Chicago Bears offensive line that played every offensive snap together until from Week 1 until the last game of the season. Only Long, Alshon Jeffery and Jay Cutler remain from that starting offense that was one play fourth down conversion away from defeating Green Bay and capturing the NFC North in 2013.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) A recent Fox Sports article was titled “the Philadelphia Eagles are the most dysfunctional mess in the NFL.” I feel that there is a stronger case to be made for the Cleveland Browns getting that inauspicious title, or even the Detroit Lions, who fired team president Tom Lewand and general manager Martin Mayhew in December, and most recently fired 2 more scouts in post draft shakeup. Who would you nominate?

DFF Response) The Colts. Even though many believe the Eagles front office out to be “dysfunctional” that statement is inaccurate. Though some of the decisions made this offseason can be questioned it’s apparent that the front office is all pulling in the same direction since the removal of Chip Kelly. On the other hand the Colts still employ Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano. Last season it was widely reported that the front office would tell the coaches what players should receive playing time. The Colts players held a players only meeting to remind each other to focus on actually playing football and not the drama between the coaching staff and front office. Last season there was rampant speculation that Pagano would be fired after every loss, at no point did Grigson support his coach publicly. At the conclusion of last season it was widely assumed Pagano would be going his own way and the Colts would go theirs. Jim Irsay, the Colts owner, decided he liked the Pagano/Grigson dynamic and decided four more years of it would be just awesome. So the Colts go on with no change, well except for firing all of the coaches, Offensive coordinator being the most prominent, that Grigson forced upon Pagano. I for one cannot wait until the Colts next 3 game losing streak. (Answered by DFF’s Shane @DFF_ShaneShame)

 

Utter-Fantasy #10) What would we be saying about Cleveland WR Josh Gordon now, if he had been an exemplary player in the NFL since being drafted in 2012, with no suspensions to speak of?

DFF Response) So many moving parts in Cleveland, Gordon or not, to really put any quantified level of success for Flash whether or not he had been suspended and missed parts or all of the last three seasons. When he has played, he has shown flashes of brilliance. He has the skill set and the metrics to be one of the bigger impact players in the NFL; there is a reason that he is lauded among fantasy players and defended tirelessly against those who want to just write him off. The talent is there, and he is in Cleveland. He would probably still be getting his numbers and put up an average of 70 catches, 1200 yards and a handful of touchdowns, much like Calvin Johnson, but ultimately he would be lost in the shuffle on a bad team. He could have been, and still could be, as productive as Megatron and Julio Jones as long as his team stabilized the quarterback position.

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

 

1st and 10 with DFF Week 6
1st and 10 with DFF Week 5
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 4
1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 6

1st and 10 with DFF Week 6 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 6-  April 18th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Jeremy Funk. Be sure to follow Jeremy on Twitter @DFF_Deuce

 

Utter-Fantasy #1) Everyone has an opinion by now about the blockbuster trade made by the Rams with the Titans to get the #1 selection in the 2016 NFL Draft? What is yours?

DFF Response) Overall, I like this trade for both teams honestly.

LA: It tells me who the Rams will be drafting. Between the lines and largely missed by most media outlets, Hue Jackson, Jared Goff, and Adam Silver (NFL Network Analyst) are all linked directly to one another by the CAL program. After the Trade, Silver tweeted:

the Tweet image

This tells me Goff will undoubtedly be a Ram. Also, I think this opens an awesome window to buy some of the options in LA. Quick and Austin are likely to increase in value. Goff is a great talent and has been hailed by Matt Waldman as the best QB to come out as Luck. He will also be in a place where he can rely on arguably the best RB in the game and a defense that will control the game.

TEN: The Titans will now have the needed picks to add a good RT (probably Conklin), take some shots on skill positions, and add more talent to that Dick LeBeau defense. I think this is largely beneficial to QB Mariota. Going forward, I am nervous for Murray. With six picks in the top 50, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Henry or Dixon in a TEN jersey.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)   Do you think the NFL does enough to prepare young athletes for fame and fortune, or could they do more to prevent disasters like Titus Young, Josh Gordon, Aldon Smith, Joseph Randle and Johnny Manziel from happening?

DFF Response) You are trying to get me to go on a rant, aren’t you!
Before I begin, I love the game of football enough to spend my free time writing about a game within a game. Please keep that in mind before tweeting me hate mail…

Personally, I struggle with a lot of mixed feelings about the ethics the NFL displays at times. To be frank, I don’t think the NFL cares. The tragedy of these young men is caused by clinical illness. However, they are seen through the eyes of business, which is in light of tickets, jersey sales, cost cutting.

For example, if we drug tested every single player on a random day, do you think we would have more players test positive? Yes, because the NFL has set a standard date for drug testing. Therefore, the players who are able to stop doing drugs for the month or so, to flush their systems, are able to pass the test. This biased sampling process causes two types of people to test positive: those who don’t care enough to known the testing rule and those suffering from a mental illness. The NFL then chooses to cut bait on them after they cannot stop, which leaves them to a life of mockery and often further addiction.

I do not want to paint the NFL as doing this on purpose, but I do want to present this narrative in a different light. By the addition of Fantasy Football, the NFL has gotten fans to also view the players as an owner does….. Another asset to our team.

“I don’t care if you are healthy, get on the field!  They are gonna cost me money!!”

I challenge you to see the difference between if I was quoting the thoughts of a NFL owner or something we have all thought in one way or another.

…. So in short, NO THEY DON’T and ABSOLUTELY!

(Utter-Fantasy Response- You won’t get “hate mail”, we all agree with you Jeremy!)

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)  Remember the “Good ol’ Days” when TE Jimmy Graham was the #1 tight end in the NFL? In 2012 and 2013 he had a combined 26 touchdown receptions. I am currently participating in a DFF IDP Mock draft in which 14 tight ends were selected before TE Graham was taken in the 17th round (of the 30 round draft). Are fantasy football owners sleeping on TE Graham for the upcoming 2016 season?

DFF Response) No…..He should be lower than that, honestly.

I have not research this injury, specifically. However, I can name off more than four people that have had such a rare and significant injury (Torn Patellar Tendon). Victor Cruz, Ryan Williams, Morris Claiborne, Cadillac Williams….Jimmy Graham.

Here’s a quote from RB Ryan Williams to Victor Cruz: “Growing up I thought the worst injury you could have is the ACL. No, when you tear that patellar tendon and your kneecap shifts into your thigh, that’s something I wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy…… There’s no easy way to walk anyone through the process.”

Not only did these guys never produce a fantasy viable season again, NONE have returned to the field for starter snaps after their injury. However, this is only from my knowledge, so there is a lot of hope still. If Victor Cruz is able to come back, I will definitely reconsider my stance. Until then, Jimmy has retired in my opinion.

Here’s a great article that better describes the injury and its viability of return.
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2013/06/01/the-dynasty-doctor-6/

 

Utter-Fantasy #4) In 2014, Buffalo had the #2 defense in the NFL. In 2015, they had the #24 defense in the NFL. So how did HC Rex Ryan address his floundering defense in the off-season? He hired his brother Rob Ryan, who was fired as defensive coach in New Orleans following the team’s 47-14 loss to the Washington Redskins in Week 10. Under Ryan, The Saint’s defense ranked dead last in the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed. Would you like to speculate how the Buffalo defense fares in 2016 under the Ryan brothers?

DFF Response) ***Sigh***

It’s bad business to partner yourself with family. Just like his dad, Rex continually proves to be a terrible head coach in the NFL. I can’t blame Rob for what happened in NOLA. The front office was selling everyone on with decent talent to make up for their mismanagement of the salary cap. If I remember correctly, most of them were on the defense. Rob will be a positions coach, so he won’t have much say in the in-game play calling… thank god. As far as Rex, he will be back to his coordinator position in no time.

To bring it back to fantasy, a decaying Rex Ryan defense is great…………. FOR SAMMY WATKINS!!!

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  Arian Foster, Joique Bell, Ronnie Hillman, Pierre Thomas, Anthony Dixon, Bryce Brown, Bernard Pierce and Kendall Hunter. Are you surprised that any of these unsigned running backs are still available as free agents and if so, why?

DFF Response) Hillman is the one I am most confused by. He’s recent production was worthy of a contract. I think that is bad news for him. He is either seeking too much money or teams know something we don’t.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6) In 2015, KC QB Alex Smith was sacked the 6th most often in the NFL. The Chiefs’ O-Line was atrocious last year and they just lost T/G Jeff Allen and OT Donald Stephenson in free agency. If the Chiefs don’t come up big in the 2016 NFL Draft with help for their offensive line, I will drop KC skill position players substantially in my rankings. Will you?

DFF Response) Every push has an equal pull, right? If they don’t take O-line, then they will be adding talent to the skills or Defense. If its defense, I would say it helps the running game and keeps Maclin the same. However, I think they hurt everyone’s fantasy value if a skill player is drafted there.

In general, I would be selling all options in KC. If I am drafting and players are falling down the boards by 2-3 rounds, I would draft them.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) Talk about winning and losing the “Takeaway/ Giveway” Battle…in 2015, the Carolina Panthers were #1 in the NFL with a plus 20 record in season turnovers and Dallas was dead last with negative 22. It’s hard to imagine Carolina successfully repeating with plus 20 again or Dallas being this bad again, but who do you think will come closest in 2016?

DFF Response) I thought about this for nearly 20 minutes. I think the odds are even, honestly. The answer lies in how the Defense is playing. I don’t know if Dallas can create turnovers and prevent them from falling behind. If Dallas can run the ball, they will commit a lot fewer turnovers. Carolina was great last season, but from what I have seen, Cam made a lot of throws that should be intercepted. However, their defense is good enough to create turnovers at will. I’m sorry, but I honestly can’t decide.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8) 2014 was the year of the amazing rookie wide receiver class. Will 2015 be considered the year of the amazing rookie running back class?

DFF Response) 2015 is not even close to as dominant as the 2008 draft. Here are some of the names:
Darren McFadden
Jonathan Stewart
Felix Jones
Reshard Mendenhall
Chris Johnson (CJ2k)
Matt Forte
Ray Rice
Kevin Smith (Injury derailed)
Jamaal Charles
Steve Slaton
Peyton Hillis
Justin Forsett

We will be blessed if half as many of the guys in 2015 hit as well as this class. However, I truly believe 2017 is the next big influx of young talent at RB. Don’t believe me? Judge for yourself.

2017 Running Backs

(Utter-Fantasy Response- Great players in 2008, no doubt about it, but there can be more than one amazing rookie running back class.)

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) Last week one of my 1st & 10 questions from DFF addressed the Falcon’s urgency at wide receiver. Atlanta is also in dire need of multiple pass-rushers, having finished 2015 dead last in the NFL in sacks (19). Should the Falcon’s prioritize these concerns before selecting a wide out?

DFF Response) That was actually one of my questions, so I find it fitting to answer a rebuttal. I can answer strongly about one position and only speculate on the other.

The lack of sacks can be due to a number of reasons. A) The edge rush is ineffective. B) The DT position cannot provide the internal push to prevent the QB from stepping up in the pocket. C) Poor understanding or skill by linebackers and safeties allow for an exploitable weakness underneath.

Out of all those situations, I find it most likely due to the DT or LB weakness. However, I don’t want to make that judgment without watching the film, but with such a low sack total clearly shows a defensive need. They are also committed to a developing a defense, so it would not be surprising if the need elsewhere comes before a running mate for Julio.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10) There is so much spectacular wide receiver talent in the NFL, and I am still blown away that PITT WR Antonio Brown was the #1 wide out in the NFL for the second straight year. He can’t possibly make it 3 years in row… or can he?

DFF Response) Absolutely, he is in the prime of his career. He and Ben have a “Harrison-Manning esc” relationship. However, the dramatic falloff in production the few times Big Ben was injured has been troublesome. Ben being 34 makes me think that the end might be sneaking up on us quicker than we might hope.

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1st and 10 with DFF Week 5
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 4
1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 5

1st and 10 with DFF Week 5 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 5-  April 11th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Michael Vincent. Be sure to follow Michael on Twitter @MVtweetshere

 

Utter-Fantasy #1)  Does CHI WR White’s 2015 injury make you drop him in early rankings, or are you confident that he will fulfill the same expectations in 2016 that were there for him after the 2015 NFL Draft?

DFF Response) Coach John Fox says that White is fully recovered from his shin injury that kept him out the entire 2015 season. If he refined his route running and didn’t lose any of his speed or combine measurable numbers, there is no reason why he cannot be an immediate contributor for the Bears in 2016. He was drafted to be the “X” receiver in the offense, and that’s what he’ll be if healthy. The expectation last season was that he was drafted to play alongside Alshon Jeffery and to replace Brandon Marshall and his three-year average of 154 targets between 2012 and 2014. While that did not come into fruition, White will get another opportunity not only to fill that role, but also to share the target load left behind by the departing Martellus Bennett, who averaged 100 targets per season in his three years as a Bear.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)  We all know that the NFL has been devaluing the running back position. In 2013, there were 18 running backs with 7 or more rushing TDs. In 2014, there were 15 running backs with 7 or more rushing TDs and in 2015, only 10 running back with 7 or more rushing TDs. Will 2016 continue with this downward scoring trend by RBs?

DFF Response)  Yes. Overpriced RBBC situations creating cloudy backfield breakdowns, down-and-distance metrics, and the always mind-numbingly painful vultured touchdowns, the value of a running back in the red zone has changed. The position is more saturated than ever. Only 16 running backs played 50 percent of their teams snaps, and only one, DeAngelo Williams, played two-thirds of the snaps. The biggest reason the numbers keep going down, however, is the simple fact that the league has become a pass first, pass second, pass third league. Over the last two seasons, there have been more passing touchdowns (717) than rushing touchdowns (553) inside the 10-yard line.

2015 may also have been an outlier with the amount of injuries and attrition that took place in backfields across the NFL as Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster and Matt Forte all missed significant time. DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy and Mark Ingram also missed games with injuries. It may bounce back in 2016, but it hasn’t trended that way for a while.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)   Why do you think GB WR Randall Cobb had such a drop off in production in 2015?

DFF Response) Cobb is getting a lot of the heat for this drop off and for this reason he will definitely be undervalued going into 2016 in both dynasty and redraft leagues. Let’s not forget a few factors that played into the “drop off”. The Packers lost Jordy Nelson for the season during an exhibition game and the Packers spent most of the season with Cobb lining up next to either old (James Jones), bad (Davonte Adams), or unproven players (Jeff Janis and Jeff Abbrederis.) None of that equated to the value of what Jordy Nelson did to the defense, forcing Cobb to be the only legitimate threat out of that receiving corps. With no one there to stretch the field, no real consistent production out of Richard Rodgers at tight end, absolutely zero out of the running game, AND a very weak offensive line, Cobb’s production became collateral damage. It wasn’t for a lack of targets, as he set a career high with 129 of them in 2015. Four of his six touchdowns came in the first three games of the season, so recency bias is eating away at Cobb’s 2016 ADP and I think that’s fine. He will get under-drafted, Nelson will be back, Lacy needs to bounce back and the offensive line will be upgraded through the draft. Cobb owners who are buying low will look like geniuses.

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  Is there a player(s) who is getting a lot of hype in this year’s NFL Draft, who you think will be selected too early by an NFL team?

DFF Response) I can see Braxton Miller being drafted too early by his hometown Cleveland Browns, attempting to reinvent the wheel by drafting a guy who can be a quarterback or a wide receiver, much like Terrell Pryor. Both out of Ohio State, both QB turned WR, both now on the Browns as they usher in the “Moneyball” era for Cleveland under new head coach Hue Jackson. He has the skill set to succeed as a wide receiver in the NFL but without a structured offense in place and so many question marks around him and the Browns, it’s going to be tough. With the question marks at the quarterback position, Josh Gordon, and the running game, it’s a perfect storm for Miller to be the next failed experiment at quarterback for Cleveland, even though they will draft him as a receiver.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  Will RB Jeremy Langford be a respectable replacement for RB Matt Forte in Chicago?

DFF Response)   Whether it was in Carolina with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, or in Denver with any combination of Knowshon Moreno, Lance Ball, Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, Juwan Thompson and C.J. Anderson, John Fox’s offensive approach will more than likely involve more than one running back carrying the ball. In each of his four Denver Broncos seasons, Fox had two players with at least 100 carries (Tim Tebow had 122 for 660 yards in 2011). In his first season with the Bears in 2015, Forte had 218 carries to Langford’s 148. Whether or not it was a product of age or Fox’s approach, it was the least touches per game he has averaged in his career. Can Langford be the bell-cow in Chicago? Probably, but we may not find out because of how Fox utilizes running backs. Ka’Deem Carey may get an extended look in training camp and the fact that they attempted to bring in C.J. Anderson on a long-term deal makes you wonder if they see Langford as “the guy” or “a guy.” On the positive side of the matter, Langford proved last season that he was careful with the ball (no lost fumbles) and was trustworthy enough in pass protection to be a three-down back in Forte’s absence. If he can curb the drops and be more efficient in the passing game (caught only 22 of 42 targets), Langford can make a case to be the lead back in Chicago, or at least have coach Fox think long and hard about a committee approach.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6)  Was last year just a great season that all came together for the 2015 Carolina Panthers or has HC Ron Rivera built this team to get double digit wins for next couple years?

DFF Response) People want to call the Panthers’ success this season a fluke after coming off a 7-8-1 record in 2014, but this is a team that also went 12-4 in 2013 and has now won three straight division titles and have had a first round bye in two of the last three years. This means they’ve played fellow division champions for the last two seasons. Ron Rivera has this team on the right track and has the perfect infusion of youth and veteran leadership in their locker room. However, they will probably not go 15-1 again and steamroll the NFL like they did this season as they played the two worst divisions in the league in the AFC South and NFC East. With Drew Brees’ light fading in New Orleans, Tampa Bay still a few years away from being a contender and Atlanta in what feels like a constant state of transition, Carolina should be the team to beat in the NFC South for years to come. Until the Panthers’ string of three straight division titles, no team had won that division in consecutive seasons since its inception in 2002.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7)  When Detroit Lions’ Martha Firestone Ford signaled a new beginning by cleaning house last November, I would have fired HC Jim Caldwell with the rest of them? Is there an NFL head coach that you feel should be unemployed right now that isn’t?

DFF Response) I may get torched for thinking this, but if Tom Coughlin doesn’t have a job right now, neither should Sean Payton. Payton, like Coughlin, has gotten by with a longer leash because of the success had in the playoffs. Coughlin won two Super Bowls, and Payton won one, after the 2009 season. How Payton and Drew Brees turned around that franchise and what it did for the city of New Orleans will never be forgotten, but in football years, that was a long time ago. Six seasons have passed since they beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. Since then, they only have two playoff wins and have finished 7-9 three times in the last four years, with only one playoff appearance during that span. What Sean Payton means to that franchise may be more than just football related, but eventually that sentimental attachment sets teams back. He signed a five year extension that is going to pay him $8 million annually, so it looks like they have reached the point of no return if they were going to cut ties at any point in the near future. This may be a long term strategic move; a way to save face if he were to continue to miss the playoffs by keeping him on as a “football czar” or a move to the front office.

(Utter-fantasy Response: We agree!)

 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  Tell me at least one fantasy football draft selection that you made last year that you are still regretting.

DFF Response) I stay true to drafting wide receivers early in all my leagues and all my formats. Even in DFS, I look to allocate most of my budget to top tier, high ceiling receivers. I always do this…except when I don’t. I joined two leagues later into the preseason and wanted to try something different. One was a standard league and I went RB first, selecting Eddie Lacy has the second overall pick. Obviously in hindsight, if RB first was my strategy, it would not have mattered who I picked as most of them were either injured or ineffective all season. Any shred of confidence I still had in taking a running back early was shattered after the 2015 season. In another league, again, deciding to go against the grain I chose to select Andrew Luck late in the second round. Huge mistake. I never take quarterbacks or running backs early and when I did, I remembered why I don’t. I look forward to not overthinking things this season.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9)   Ranked your top 5 tight ends for the upcoming 2016 NFL season with a brief explanation why you ranked them as such.

DFF Response)  Number 1 would be Rob Gronkowski. Give me his size, skills, system, scheme, quarterback, and complimentary weapons around him and I will show you the best tight end in football right now. People forget he is a great inline blocker too, which makes him even more valuable than most others. He just needs to stay healthy. I can write a book about why he is TE1, but you already know that.

Number 2 would be Greg Olsen. Olsen may be older but he is still very productive and reliable. He has not missed a game since his rookie season and has played 142 straight regular season games. He has seen his targets increase every year since joining Carolina in 2011 and has four straight 100 target seasons and two straight 1000-yard campaigns. His touchdowns have also increased every year since 2011, which is also the year Cam Newton was drafted. He is Newton’s go-to guy and a red zone threat. In his career, he has 37 touchdowns in the red zone, including 23 inside the 10-yard line. I will take two to three more years of this production over a project-player.
 
Number 3 for me is Travis Kelce. Kelce will be good for many years to come and can be successful split out or as an inline tight end. His target total increased in 2015 but his production was nearly identical from 2014 which is a concern. He has also lost six fumbles over the last two seasons, which can be troubling if it continues. After Jeremy Maclin, Kelce is the Chiefs’ best route runner, but both are still going to be as good and as vertical as Alex Smith’s arm is going to allow them to be. Kelce can be great if his quarterback situation improves. He has produced decent numbers in a low-passing volume offense; it can only get better.
 
Number 4 is Zach Ertz. Like Kelce, Ertz just signed a long term deal with Philadelphia. His new head coach, Doug Pederson, was Kelce’s offensive coordinator in Kansas City. Ertz broke out at the end of last season and one can only hope he builds on that momentum and the new coaching staff utilizes him properly. Also like with Kelce, Ertz has a former number one overall pick in Sam Bradford throwing him the ball. Ertz had career highs in targets, receptions and yards in 2015 and will look to improve on that under a new regime.
 
Number 5 is Jordan Reed. I want to believe in Reed and what the Redskins did at the end of last season. I really do, which is why I have him ranked higher than the likes of Gary Barnidge and Delanie Walker. So many things went right for Reed last season it’s almost unrealistic to think that it’s going to happen again. Kirk Cousins played out of this world in the second half the year and Reed was the main beneficiary. No semblance of a running game and defense led to high scoring shootouts that catered to Reed’s target-dependent production. He was a monster in 2015 but there is still concerns over concussions and his ability to stay on the field.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10)   Two running backs were selected in the 1st round of last years’s NFL draft, and two in the 2nd round. I predict those same numbers this year. What do you predict?

DFF Response) If we’re being honest, I can’t see anyone but Zeke Elliott and Derrick Henry taken in the first two rounds, with only Elliott going in the first. I can see as a longshot Kenneth Dixon out of Louisiana Tech going late in the second round to Green Bay, Carolina or New England, but outside of Elliott and Henry, it’s hard to predict too many teams using a high pick on a running back this year. Too many teams have too many needs.

 

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 4
1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 4

1st and 10 with DFF Week 4 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 4-  April 4th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Samuel Feldman. Be sure to follow Zach on Twitter @ThaDudeFeldman

 

Utter-Fantasy #1)  The starting quarterback for Buffalo is still Tyrod Taylor, with EJ Manuel as his back up. Since HC Rex Ryan didn’t make any free agent quarterback acquisitions, can he really be content going into the 2016 season with those 2 guys??

DFF Response) Yes, the Bills can be content with Taylor, but may not be content with Manuel. Although Ryan is the head coach, Greg Roman controls the offense. Roman had Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick at QB in his stint as OC in San Francisco. If you think he doesn’t want Tyrod as quarterback, then you overlook the archetype he already had before coming to Buffalo. At least at starter the Bills are content with Taylor, as for how they feel about Manuel, we will see based on moves they make throughout the rest of the off-season.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)  Last season, SD RB Melvin Gordon’s was, on average, the 14th running back taken in fantasy football drafts. He ended 2015 as the 51st RB with only 641 yards on 184 carries- ZERO touchdowns. HC Mike McCoy is blaming his 2015 offensive line. Is RB Gordon going to be a “better player” as a sophomore, or will he end being a 1st round bust for San Diego?

DFF Response)  Although the Chargers had offensive line issues last year, there was more to Melvin Gordon’s struggles then just that. His bad decision when running the ball and fumbling issues are things he needs to fix, regardless of his offensive line. Do I expect him to be better? Yes, but only because it is tough to be worse than he was in 2015. I am buying him if the price is low and right, but that means cheap and as my 3rd RB at best. Also going overlooked is how good Danny Woodhead is as more than just a passing back. Additionally, Branden Oliver is a very capable back who is worth owning as a deep stash in dynasty leagues as he could steal Gordon’s role if Gordon continues to struggle. While I expect Gordon to improve, it is because he was so bad, but I am not betting on him making a great impact. Stashing either of the other San Diego backs could turn out to be a wise investment if Gordon continues to struggle.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)   Many fantasy football players like having kickers as one of the scoring options in fantasy leagues, and many just want the position eliminated. It’s usually as even a spilt, as choosing between Ginger and Mary Ann. Where do you vote….kicker or no kicker……(and Ginger or Mary Ann?)

DFF Response) While I am too young to take sides on Gilligan’s Island, I am for kickers in fantasy because having fantasy, somewhat resemble real football, makes it more fun. So what if you lose because of Justin Tucker kicking five field goals one week, it sucks, but that’s what makes fantasy football interesting, while often agonizing. If you don’t want kickers, that’s fine, but I will continue to remain on the kicker train even though I am now in leagues where there are not kickers. Having said that, I will never be on board with punters in fantasy.

(Utter-Fantasy Response- Mary Ann)

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  2015 was the first time in five seasons that RB Frank Gore failed to reach 1,000 yards. QB A Luck getting injured was a major factor, as was the hideously awful Indianapolis O-Line. If Indy gets help up front, are buying or selling RB Gore in 2016?

DFF Response) While there were many disadvantageous factors for Frank Gore in Indianapolis last year, I am not expecting a bounce back year from him. At age 32 and with over 2,800 carries between both regular season and postseason, it is time that Gore stops defying the odds of running back success. However, if Indianapolis drafts a back, Keith Marshall or Jonathan Williams for instance, then sign me up for drafting them. So, I am selling Gore, but buying his replacement.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  HC Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide usually produce 1-2 running backs that enter the NFL Draft as highly touted prospects. RBs Mark Ingram and Eddie Lacy have, for the most part, lived up to expectations. RBs Trent Richardson did not, and T.J. Yeldon hasn’t yet.  6’2″ Alabama RB Derrick Henry is slated as the #2 running back in the upcoming 2016 NFL Draft. Could he be another product of a great system, or is he a great running back for the NFL?

DFF Response)   In my view, Derrick Henry will be a good NFL running back, if he ends up in the right power running system. Expect Henry to be the ugly, unsexy (for fantasy purposes) bruiser in a committee backfield. Places like the Jets, Cowboys, Giants and Colts all present interesting fits. The first two spots are actually very interesting because both have cloudy backfields, which may lead to him falling in some drafts thus, making him a value as he should win roles in those places. Nevertheless, Henry is “very landing spot dependent” in my opinion.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6)  Tampa Bay seems to think WR Vincent Jackson has at least 1-2 more good NFL years in him, do you? ( VJ was the #65 wide receiver last season with only 543 receiving yards and 3 TDs, with basically no other competition for targets other than WR Mike Evans )

DFF Response) Jackson may very well have a good year or two left in him, as he was effective when healthy. However, it is tough to bet on an old veteran receiver coming off numerous injuries the year before. For that reason, I will only own shares of him if he is very inexpensive, because I do not expect more than a few good games from him this year. Additionally, Tampa Bay has five options at skill positions on that offense who all could end up being more valuable. Those options include; Mike Evans, Doug Martin, Charles Sims, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Kenny Bell. Therefore, tread very very cautiously with Jackson and ultimately do not expect anything of significance from him this year.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7)  7 – I thought RGIII would be signed by owner Jerry Jones as a dependable back-up for Romo, but RGIII signed with Cleveland. There aren’t a lot of options left, unless Jones is planning on a rookie from the 2016 NFL Draft. What do you think about Michael Vick signing with Dallas?

DFF Response) I am not a fan of Vick in Dallas. I actually would rather see Christian Hackenberg get drafted by the Cowboys. Sitting behind and learning from Romo would most likely be an ideal situation for both Hackenberg and the Cowboys long term. Additionally, that offensive line in Dallas would give Hackenberg a chance to see a clean pocket for the first time in years should be be called on to play sometime this season. If anything, the Cowboys need to look at both short and long term when looking at a back-up for Romo and Hackenberg provides potentially the best of both worlds.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  Even splitting time with RBs DeMarco Murray and Darren Sproles, Ryan Matthews ended 2015 as the #33 running back in the NFL. I think he will be sneaky #1/#2 RB that will surprise most fantasy football owners and can be selecting as late as the 3rd or 4th rounds. What are your thoughts on him?

DFF Response) As long as Philadelphia does not look to draft a running back and Mathews stays healthy (a big IF), he has a good chance to be a league winner for fantasy teams this year. People hated on him more for being injured rather than for lacking talent, so if he is the lead back then he can provide some very good value this year. Additionally, Mathews is still at a reasonable age for running backs and he has good measurables, akin to Marshawn Lynch, so hoping for a bellcow year is not unreasonable. Overall, Mathews presents good risk-reward value for those willing to take him in that range, as he could turn into a fantasy difference-maker with the lead role in Philadelphia.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9)   TE Vernon Davis just signed with Washington. Last year when he was signed by Denver, it was a waiver wire storm for fantasy football owners trying to get him. Davis ended up with 20 catches for 201 yards and 0 TDs for the Broncos. Do you agree that his signing won’t hurt TE Jordan Reed’s stats in 2016?

DFF Response)  I am probably disliking Davis a little too much, but I am calling him a camp body, to show just how little I am concerned with his fantasy value. he won’t hurt Reed’s stats or value, because Davis is not as good as he once was. Simply, this is Washington looking for more Reed insurance in case he gets hurt again. Although, I am a fan of Niles Paul should anything happen to Reed. I am dubious of Washington running more two tight end sets if both Paul and Reed are healthy.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10)   If you were a team last year looking to draft a rookie quarterback, who would you have selected, Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota?

DFF Response) Plain and simple, I am a Mariota guy. I was always was aboard the Mariota train, but could never fully hop on the Winston train. However, both are good and should be good for years, but Mariota is my guy plain and simple.

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 3

1st and 10 with DFF Week 3 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

 

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any questions for Michael, really let us know.

Week 3-  March 28st, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Zach Van Kirk. Be sure to follow Zach on Twitter @DFF_Zach

 

Utter-Fantasy #1)  The Kansas City Chiefs had a top 5 defense in 2015, but OLB Justin Houston’s (ACL) season is now “in jeopardy”. Are you buying or selling the KC defense in 2016 with this key player now missing from the upcoming season?

DFF Response) The loss of Justin Houston will be major loss to the team, but not so much to the fantasy world. Houston had a large drop off in production from his near record setting campaign in 2014. Granted, Houston did miss 5 games in 2015 and was likely playing at less than 100%. Even with Houston ailing, the Chiefs sacked the QB 47 times, good for 4th in the league, and finished as the top scoring fantasy defense in 2015. I wouldn’t expect to see the same type of fantasy production from the Chiefs defense in 2016, as team defenses has proven to be fairly volatile, but I would argue that they are a must start in the coming season.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2)  The NFL has now expanding the international games to China in 2018. I don’t believe that NFL players are jumping for joy over this, having to travel all the way across the world for one game. As a fan, I truly don’t think this brings much to the game, do you?

DFF Response) This is one of those moves that the NFL is doing in hope of expanding the brand and increasing revenue. They are doing so with little regard to the players or fans. From a fan standpoint, I could do without games in China. I am a creature of habit when it comes to the regular season schedule and the games in England last year had earlier start times than normal. I love watching as much football as I can but as a fan on the west coast, I had to wake up earlier than I do during the week to check who was active and confirm my lineup. I think the majority of fans and players would be more welcoming of games in Mexico City, like they are doing in 2016.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)  N.O Sean Payton was the highest paid head coach in the NFL last year, but has had back-to-back losing seasons in 2014 & 2015. Is this guy worth the new five-year contract that he was just given, worth “in excess” of $45 million?

DFF Response) In my opinion, Payton isn’t worth this much money. The entire move seems a bit odd considering the downtrend that the Saints have been in recently. The defense is most to blame for the lack of success in 2015 by allowing the most points per game (29.8) and the second most rushing and passing yards over the season. Rob Ryan took most of the blame for the defense when he departed, so now the focus will shift to 37 year old QB Drew Brees. The Saints offense has still been able to produce even with an aging Brees, but it remains to be seen how Payton will replace Brees. There is also the question of if Payton can be successful without Brees, as the two of them have been connected at the hip since 2006.

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  The 2016 NFL Draft is in a month. It will begin, like it always does, with Roger Goodell walking on stage and being booed mercilessly….and I love it. Do you think he has any idea how hated he is, or does a $40 million dollar paycheck every year, make all the jeers just fade away?

DFF Response) I would hope Goodell is smart enough to understand how much everyone hates him. Players and fans voice their opinion on Goodell after every controversial decision. At this point, I don’t think he cares. The NFL continues to see success and is only gaining momentum. While the hatred for him grows, it seems increasingly unlikely that we will see him bounced from his job. At this point, the owners seem too content with the revenue stream to put up much of a fight against him. We won’t see Goodell removed from his office without a major scandal.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5)  Coach Rex Ryan reiterated at Tuesday’s NFL Coaches Breakfast that he wants free agent Percy Harvin back with the Bills. Here are Harvin’s stats for the past 3 years…….(2013)-1/17/0…..(2014)-51/361/1…..(2015)-19/218/1. How the heck does this guy keep getting a spot on team rosters???

DFF Response) Harvin will continue to find work because of the stats he put up from 2010 to 2012. Since those three productive years in Minnesota, he has been plagued by injuries and also pegged as an outsider in the locker room. Harvin, as a free agent, also comes at a much lower price compared to the 1st, 3rd, and 7th round picks that the Seahawks sent to Minnesota in early 2013. Although it is highly unlikely that Harvin will find the same form he had in Minnesota, I would say that it is at least worth a gamble. If the Bills bring Harvin back for pennies, any sort of production would come as a warm welcome.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6)  DE Chris Long obviously comes from good NFL pedigree, but he has battled injuries for the past 2 years. He was drafted by the St. Louis Rams 2nd overall in the 2008 NFL Draft, and LA Rams HC Jeff Fisher has stated that Long will ‘be a factor’ for Patriots. Do you agree?

DFF Response) I love the move. While Chris Long has dealt with his fair share of injuries, he came at an incredible bargain. I am confident that Bill Belichick will get every ounce of potential out of the 31 year old defensive end. Long may not end the year as a defensive player of the year candidate but he should be a huge factor in helping the Patriots compete for another championship.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7)  I have always liked the competitive fight in WR Anquan Boldin, and even on a lousy 49er team in 2015, he hauled in 69 receptions for 789 yards and 4 touchdowns. Although he’s 35 years old, I am surprised that he’s still free agent…are you? ( I would love to see him reunite with WR Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona!)

DFF Response) I am fairly confident that Boldin will find a home before preseason. He may be getting older but he has shown much more resiliency than other 35 year old receivers. As an Arizona native, I would love to see Q back here. My family had the good fortune of meeting him several times during his time in the desert and he was always extremely kind and receptive to fans. On top of his on-field production, Boldin’s good nature is likely to woo a GM or Coach during the free agency period. We already know that Q’s first game with a new team will be a good one: AZ Debut- 10/217/2, Baltimore Debut- 7/110, San Francisco Debut- 13/208/1.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  I am always relieved in fantasy football drafts when WR Rueban Randle is taken early, so I don’t even have to consider him in later rounds. The Giants did not try to re-sign him, and now that he is Philadelphia, his stock drops even more for me, if that’s possible. Does he have much fantasy value for you in 2016?

DFF Response) As a perpetual Randle owner, I can say that this move doesn’t excite me in the least. I have rostered Randle in the past as a bye week filler but the Philly signing will hurt that stock as well. Everyone expects the Philly offense to be much different than it was under Chip Kelly but that still doesn’t mean that Randle will be anything outside of a desperation flex play. The team already has two stars in the making with WRs Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor, so it’s likely that Randle will take over as the 3rd receiver, competing with Chris Givens and Josh Huff. After Victor Cruz went down, Randle’s biggest advantage in NY was not having a true WR2 to surpass him on the depth chart. Barring a setback or injury to Agholor or Matthews, Randle should lose all fantasy value and retain very little NFL value as well.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9)   RGIII is now in Cleveland, and the Browns have a capable quarterback of sorts. They have wasted 5-1st rounds picks on quarterbacks since 1999, so this signing means that they won’t draft a QB in the 1st round, correct?

DFF Response) I have mixed feelings about RGIII in Cleveland. They have made a lot of positive changes including the hiring of Hue Jackson. All signs point to this being a productive move for the Browns and RGIII, but they are still the Browns. The problem arises if the Browns draft a quarterback with the second overall pick. This would likely create an unnecessary media distraction and ultimately leave the Browns with two starter potential quarterbacks, both with lost confidence.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10)   True or false……Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak is “coo coo” if he believes Mark Sanchez can “run the Denver offense.”

DFF Response) False. Falso. Faux. Falsch. Mark Sanchez is the opposite of a franchise QB. I am still racking my brain on how Sanchez, Rex, and the Jets made it to the AFC championship in back to back years. If I could insert a gif in here to support my argument, it would be the ultra famous Butt Fumble. We may never see something so terrifically entertaining ever again. After a few years of great offseason and draft moves by Elway, this is the biggest head scratcher. Sanchez has all the talent in the world to be a backup QB, but he should never be a starter again. The support that he has received from Kubiak is likely coach talk and the Broncos will end up with Ryan Fitzpatrick or a rookie in the upcoming draft. Don’t expect to see Sanchez on the field in 2016 besides in preseason games.

 

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1st and 10 with DFF Week 2

1st and 10 with DFF Week 2 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

.

Each week on Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF Michael Goins.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any questions for Michael, really let us know.

Week 2- March 21st, 2016

Utter-Fantasy #1)  New England did not re-sign TE Scott Chandler, but they did sign former Chicago TE Martellus Bennett. He is not just your average tight end in the NFL. Do Gronk’s stats take a hit in 2016 from the signing?

DFF) Interesting development for sure. If you look back at how productive Gronk was with Hernandez you will find that he was just as productive if not more without him. Gronk is simply a freak and Brady has every bit of faith in him. However, has had his own bouts with injury over the last few season. The wear and tear has begun to affect his play, but I do not foresee the addition of Bennett thwarting Gronks season long production as much as some may contend. If he remains healthy, he is a surefire weekly TE1 and likely finishes the season as the best at the position.

Utter-Fantasy #2)  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is still unsigned. Where is the best landing spot for him, assuming a team is willing to meet his high salary demands?

DFF) Honestly I think Denver makes a lot of sense. Fitz isn’t going to burn up the stats sheets, but he is a steady QB with decent pocket presence who could keep the engines running in Denver. However, something in my gut tells me Elway nabs one of the bigger name QB prospects in this draft. Fitz would simply be temporary, but one who could still get the job done.

Utter-Fantasy #3)  The Bengals let WRs Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu walk in free agency. Since they haven’t made any significant wide receiver signings so far, they don’t seem overly concerned about addressing the posititon yet. Should they be?

DFF) The easy answer is yes. I am shocked they let both men walk, while not retaining at least one of them. The noodle armed Dalton will need weapons. Eifert had his coming out party in 2015 and all signs point to his continued ascension to being a weekly TE1 option. However, they still need more weapons in order to mask Dalton’s limitations. Perhaps Gio stakes a claim to more dump off opportunities, but that would mean the offense most likely won’t offer much in the sense of explosive potential.

Utter-Fantasy #4)  After DAL QB Tony Romo went down in 2015 with another shoulder injury, WR Dez Bryant’s production plummeted. I will advise fantasy football owners not to draft Dez as a top 5 wide receiver in 2016, because Romo will get hurt again. Will this be good advice?

DFF) Even with all of the new rules protecting the quarterback position you can’t truly game plan for injuries. All you can do is constantly be insulating yourself with production depth. I draft or acquire players based on one thing and one thing only, talent. Bryant is still one of the most talented players at his position. Rather than steer away from him due to the fear that Romo gets hurt again, why not select him, if the value is right (still top 5 in my opinion) and parlay that move when the opportunity presents itself.

Utter-Fantasy #5)  WR Calvin Johnson has been QB Matt Stafford’s security blanket since the Detroit quarterback was drafted in 2009. Would you agree that the Detroit Lions have no chance the win the NFC North, with the retirement of Megatron?

DFF) They didn’t have chance even with Megatron. Although Detroit acquired Marvin Jones and many touted him as being worthy of a WR1, I don’t see it. He isn’t a particularly “special” athlete in my view. Speed will be his wheelhouse in that offense. Detroit is hoping to stretch the field with a fast paced offensive approach, but unless Ebron can turn the page on his career they will still be missing a true red zone threat. Hopefully Jones can become that viable red zone option, but he won’t be “replacing” what Megatron offered to that offense.

Utter-Fantasy #6)  Early last season, QB Ben Roethlisberger was saying that 2015 would be a break out year for WR Markus Wheaton. Big Ben’s statements had Wheaton being drafted before WR Martavis Bryant. As we know, Wheaton did not have a break out season, and Bryant ended with superior stats, playing in 4 less games. WR Bryant is now suspended indefinitely, but should fantasy football owner’s be cautious of expecting too much from Wheaton again? Would you draft WR Sammie Coates over Wheaton?

DFF) If you are a Wheaton or Coates owner you should be selling, selling, selling!!! Brown, Bell and the newly acquired TE Green will dominate targets in 2016. Sure, Wheaton may have a game here or there where he puts up a silly stat line, but he isn’t someone I would hang my hat on as a weekly WR2. I would be much more comfortable with him as a WR3 or FLEX option. Coates’ size and athleticism will be a benefit occasionally, but I do not foresee consistency. Obviously, much will be gleaned from the pre-season and how these two will be used, but at this stage neither player would targets for me outside of deep FLEX formats.

Utter-Fantasy #7)  The National Football League Competition Committee is expected to pass a rule making ejections automatic after 2 personal fouls. Is this a gross over-reaction to one uncontrolled game between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman in Week 15?

DFF) The “No Fun League” strikes again! All this makes me think of is the Tony Soprano gif “What are ya gonna do?” Maybe the NFLPA steps in, but I doubt very much that they end up doing that. Succinctly, do I “like” it?  No. 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  ATL QB Matt Ryan went from the #7 quarterback for 2014, to #16 quarterback for 2015. The Falcons did make a nice acquisition to help the offense by signing C Alex Mack, formerly of the Browns. What are your expectations of Ryan in 2016?

DFF) I’ve never been a big fan of Ryan myself. Another ho-hum quarterback but anytime you have Julio as your WR1 there’s still a bit of appeal. The addition of Sanu and the emergence of Freeman are certainly intriguing for his future prospects and perhaps Ryan has the potential for a Top 10 finish.

Utter-Fantasy #9)  In 2015, I recommended fantasy football owners to stay clear of DAL RB Darren McFadden, because he’s old, slow and can’t stay healthy. He ended the season with over 1400 yards and 3 TDs. What was your recommendation in 2015, and what is it for 2016?

DFF) I jumped off the D-Train years ago. Too fragile of a player with too much inconsistent production. He was the epitome of wasted talent in Oakland, while never ascending to elite status. If you currently own McFadden,you might consider selling him high. If you “still believe” then I advise you to not visit Vegas anytime soon…that gambling nature will be your undoing.

Utter-Fantasy #10)   In my recent article “2016 Free Agent Landings Part 1″ I wrote that San Diego’s signing of WR Travis Benjamin might be my “favorite offensive pick-up in free agency so far, after the Houston QB Osweiler acquisition.” Are you as high on WR Benjamin for the 2016 season as I am?

DFF) It was a heartbreaking signing for me as I was (and still am) a huge supporter of 6’4″ WR Tyrell Williams. Alas, it appears the Charger front office doesn’t agree. Yes, I do believe Benjamin was a huge addition to the Charger offense and an explosive field stretching weapon granted to the gunslinging Rivers. I could see him matching his 2015 numbers with relative ease should be ascend to the WR2 in San Diego, but there are still unknowns on that offense. At this time, he’s to trade for who and someone you might get relatively cheap.

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

1st and 10 with DFF Week 1

1st and 10 with DFF Week 1 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

I was in Jiffy Lube the other day, and their was another guy waiting for his car, like I was. “How ya doing?” I asked. “Fine, how are you?” he replied. A little chit chat about the weather, then I asked him about his KC Chiefs sweat shirt. Now the conversation got fun. He loves the Chiefs, and he lost his big fantasy football league by one lousy point. Before we could get into the 2016 NFL Draft, our cars were done. Damn it. ( How often is it, that you’re in a Jiffy Lube and cursing that your car is ready? )

But that’s how the fantasy football community is. We like talking about it, and we like meeting people who like talking about it.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

Michael and I enjoy riddling each other with fantasy football questions, and I know fans of fantasy football would enjoy reading his answers.

Each week on Monday afternoon, 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF Michael Goins.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any questions for Michael, really let us know.

Week 1- March 14th, 2016

Utter-Fantasy #1)  The San Francisco 49ers are a mess of a team. Does Chip Kelly make them better or make them worst?

Kelly will certainly bring an infusion of offensive creativity to the 49ers. However, it remains to be seen just how much control he will be extended. He certainly does not have the offensive talent he enjoyed and squandered in Philly. Whether or not a fast break offense can be successfully implemented will be something to track. Any skill position players SF acquires this off-season will certainly become high priority waiver adds. San Francisco has a lack of defined offensive roles outside of perhaps the one-trick pony WR Torrey Smith and RB Carlos Hyde. Even then, Hyde’s role isn’t completely clear. In PPR formats, he very well could lose passing downs to Draughn or another RB add this off-season. Still, from a fantasy perspective, the only player worth gambling on as a high potential production player is Hyde. I have reservations on whether or not Kelly is a developmental coach and one who can draft & groom players to fit his system or if he is simply a system based coach who requires certain types of players on the front end to plug into his scheme. My guess is that the 49ers spend 2016 finding their direction for the future.

Utter-Fantasy #2)  Doug Martin has re-signed with Tampa Bay, so he is staying a Buccaneer. He ended 2015 as the #3 running back with 4.87 per carry average. Is he a top 5 RB for 2016? If yes, then which of these 5 running backs are not- AP, D Freeman, Todd Gurley, LeVeon Bell or David Johnson?

As with any young offense, the continued development of Jameis Winston will be the key to Tampa Bays 2016 success. As far as will Martin remain a top RB fantasy talent, I have my doubts. Yes, there is something to be said for continuity, i.e. Martin/Sims worked well together in 2015. However, Winston’s wheelhouse isn’t dumping the ball off, rather its stretching the field. Therefore, with Evans evolving as a receiver, the hopeful return of a healthy ASJ and the anticipated inclusion of Kenny Bell, the Bucs offense could evolve with a greater focus on the passing game. This could leave Martin as nothing more than a goal line 2-down thumper limiting his upside. This is one of those cases where you would prefer to use Martin as your defined RB2 rather than your clear cut RB1 and would certainly want to cuff him with Sims, especially in PPR formats. With that said, a top 10 finish isn’t out of the question.

Utter-Fantasy #3)  Can Denver repeat as the AFC West champs in 2016, without even knowing who their quarterback will be yet, in 2016?

Yes. By a large margin, the Broncos will still have an imposing defense. I expect Elways to be aggressive in finding their future franchise QB. I wouldn’t put it past him to go after Goff in the draft or another high profile QB who he could earmark as “his” guy. The Broncos are still set up for success and have all the pieces in place on both sides of the ball to make another run and at the very least only need a solid game manager in my view. However, should they lose CJ Anderson, addressing the RB position will be key if they don’t acquire a solid QB. Sanchez simply won’t do.

Utter-Fantasy #4)  If you were Cleveland, would you take yet another, 1st round swing at a college quarterback, or go with a veteran free agent? There is talk that Kaepernick wants to play for the Browns. What do you think of “Kaep” as a Brown?

Kaep aint the answer. There are no viable QBs left to pick from to get that offense started. The draft is their best bet to rebuild the face of the team. There are lots of unknowns in Cleveland in 2016. However, with the potential return of Gordon, the emergence of Barnidge as a viable offense weapon and with a corps of decent RBs, all they are missing (from the offensive side) is a contributing WR2 and a stable QB situation. That’s a tall order for sure, but the offense is relatively young and they won’t be winning in divisional titles anytime soon so why not pluck the best of the QBs from the draft and employ a traditional rebuild philosophy?

Utter-Fantasy #5)  It would have been nice to see Forte get paid by Chicago and stay a Bear. Do you like where he went ( NYJ) and do you think Jeremy Langford can be Chicago’s Forte in 2016?

As a Bears fan I was sad to see him go. Alas, thats the nature of the business. Use’m, abuse’m and send them packing when you’ve tapped all that they have to give. He will be fine as a Jet. He won’t be the every week RB1 type, but will have his moments. IF the Jets are smart they will use multiple backs in order to keep him fresh. As far as Langford, he isn’t a particularly “special” talent, but he did perform well in 2015 which even surprised me. At the very least he will have a chance to start in 2016 and should hold down the change of pace roll should they bring in a “better” talent. Regardless, he will be a worthy play in PPR formats.

Utter-Fantasy #6)  I think RB DeMarco Murray has been cashing in on a great Dallas O-Line in 2014. He’s durable and a decent receiver out of the backfield, but he wasn’t special in Philly and he won’t be in Tennessee. Do you agree?

Murray is a power back, not an especially explosive short area back. This lack of quick explosion will hurt him in Tennessee. The offensive line is horrible and will limit his ability to break into the second level of defenders. Although, if Mariota can create enough of a “cause to pause” for the linebackers softening their approach then he could be solid, at least in a small window of time. Once again, every bit of offensive success in Tennessee will be predicated on the evolution of Mariota. They have weapons on offense, so the potential to be good offensively isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but will Murray be a true RB1? I doubt it. Another guy I would rather have as an RB2 if I owned him, but certainly not a guy I am targeting, especially in dynasty formats.

Utter-Fantasy #7)  Winston and Mariota had good rookie years, which isn’t an easy thing to do the NFL. Do you see any QBs in the April’s draft that warrant a 1st or 2nd overall pick?

No. Buts its all based on the direction a team headed. You never can tell what a GM is thinking, so all bets are off. In my view, the best QB in this draft is Goff, so if he is taken in the first few picks it wouldn’t surprise me.

Utter-Fantasy #8)  Heading into 2016, Gronk is still the #1 tight end, but who is your #2?

All the hype is with Eifert and rightfully so. He enjoyed a breakout 2015 and now they don’t have a viable/proven WR2 or WR3 to lean on. However, I still like Kelce as the TE2.

Utter-Fantasy #9)  It was January 11th, 2015 and the Green Bay Packers were clinging to a 26-21 lead late in the 4th quarter in the playoffs. Question: Was it a great catch by Dez Bryant or the correct call to overturn it as an incomplete pass?

LOL. Who cares. As an owner of Dez it was a catch. The “No Fun League” strikes again.

Utter-Fantasy #10)  Tell me a player from 2015, or previous years, that you were high on, but who you will never draft again because he killed your fantasy team?

I never say never with any player simply because situations and values remain fluid, especially in dynasty. However, I tend to shy away from drafting or investing too much if anything in any New England RB. As far as a player who has burned me over the last few years, it hasn’t been anyone in particular. Its been rather, that I have not developed the necessary production depth to allow me to cascade through the bye weeks or during a play off run.