NFL Week 4 Panic or Dont Panic

 

NFL Week 4 Panic or Dont Panic by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

We are only past Week 4 so I truly hope I’m re-tracking my “Panic’ players after Week 5……..but until then….

PANIC!

QBs

DET Matthew Stafford- Week 4 Stafford recorded 24/35 for 203 yards and 0 TDs. He has only 5 TD passes this season and 0 games over 300 yards- DET HC J Caldwell fits right in as a one of the many terrible HC hires for Detroit- Sadly, Stafford should be strictly a #2 QB ( and only with a decent match up) but kept in 10+ team leagues

MIA Ryan Tannehill- Only 198 yards Week with 2 TD passes. MIA HC Philbin was fired ( LONG OVER DUE) Interim HC Dan Campbell however doesn’t give me a lot of confidence with his “I’m not saying we want dirty players, but we are going to walk that line” talk. The real trouble in Miami is their O-Line and that won’t be fixed in a week

MINN Teddy Bridgewater- On my “Panic” list very week so far- Bridgewater is on a Bye Week…which is a good time to cut him and not look back

Move on from- SF Colin Kaerpernick-TB Jameis Winston-

RBs

PHIL DeMarco Murray- I’ve warned about him since the trade- DAL had an O-Line that made him look great (which he isn’t)- He now doesn’t have that O-Line in Philly, he has to share w/ 2 other RBs and he’s not 100%- Trade him

All DET RBs- It is bad enough that the team runs a RBBC, but now the team is playing bad, led by a bad head coach and DET is 0-4

CAR Jonathon Stewart- He is what most of us thought he’d be! An average RB that will put up average stats and often be injured. Keep him if you must, but 62 yards a game and 0 TDs is what you should always expect ( on a Bye Week)

WASH Matt Jones- 18 total yards ( 0 TDs ) last 2 games- Was Week 2 a fluke? Panicking owners are starting to think so

WRs

Note: None of my “Panic WRs” rebounded in Week 4- WEEK 3 PANIC LINK

PITT Markus Wheaton- Injured Week 4 and the “talented” #2 WR is back from suspension- ( WR Martavis Bryant)- I’m dropping Wheaton in all leagues because I like WRs on the waiver wire better

SF Torrey Smith- QB Kaepernick might be the worst QB in the NFL right now- The only way T Smith is going to help fantasy owners is with flukey deep passes and MIGHT come once every 3-4 games- You cannot win fantasy leagues starting WRs like that

MIA Jarvis Landry- The trouble with Landry is that Miami has TOO many weapons ( which I warned about preseason – SEE ARTICLE ) and Tannehill/ MIA O-Line are struggling- It’s difficult to cut/trade away a guy you drafted so high, but one game over 100 yards and 0 TDs….just saying

N.O. Brandon Cooks- All I can say is that he has great match ups until his Bye Week ( Week 11)- Hopefully QB Brees is covering from his shoulder injury and that you start Cooks when you need to and he finally produces. Two more weeks of this 50 yard average- 0 TD stuff however and he’ll be cut by every fantasy owner

TEs

MIA Jordan Cameron- In the “Don’t Panic” section last week…Well, 4 bad weeks and now on a BYE Week-Here’s how bad the chemistry is w/ Tannehill- 17 targets in the past 2 weeks- 5 receptions

BALT Maxx Williams- Even with TE C Gillmore OUT and WR Steve Smith sidelined…..Williams could only produce 2/4 targets for 17 yards- Panic mode is over- move on

SF Vernon Davis- He should not be on anyone’s roster

DON’T PANIC!

QBs

BALT Joe Flacco- Weeks 1 & 4 were very bad for fantasy owners. The BALT WRs were weak to begin with and injuries to WR Perriman and Steve Smith have made the situation even worst. Help is on the way however, with the signing of WR Chris Givens and emerging WR K Aiken. ( Also, ST Smith is said to be back sooner than later )

PHIL Sam Bradford- Week 4 was game fantasy owners have been waiting for- 270 yards and 3 TDs. Bradford spread the ball around hitting 7 different receivers- Good schedule for the next 2 weeks

RBs

BALT J Forsett- Last week Forsett was on this list because he hadn’t topped 68 yards in any game ( 0 TDs) Week 4 reminded us why we drafted him ( 27 carries for 150 yards) He still doesn’t have a rushing TD, but they will come – Don’t Panic

N.O. Mark Ingram- Currently ranked as the 22 overall RB in the NFL, but he wasn’t the 22nd RB drafted in September- more like the 11th overall RB drafted….so we want more. Only topped 53 rushing yards in Week 4 (77) and has only 2 rushing TDs on the season but receiving yards are there and the big games will come

MIA Lamar Miller- Unlike the MIA QB and MIA WR who I doomed for the “Panic” sections above, I have faith that the new coaching staff’s main priority…..will getting RB Miller going- Don’t Panic yet

WRs

ARI John Brown- The preseason darling – SEE PRESEASON WEEK 2 REVIEW…who was drafted high in nearly every league, has disappointed greatly in 4 games so far. There is hope because QB C Palmer targeted Brown 10 times Week 4, more than anyone on the team

DET Calvin Johnson- Not one game yet over 83 yards and 1 TD on the season- Here’s the good news….DET finally get some home games ( 3 in a row) and Week 8 is at KC, who teams have thrown all over.    Don’t Panic

In the….I told you “Don’t Panic” Dept…..DAL Terrance Williams- (Week 4….49 yards a 1 TD)

TEs

DEN Owen Daniels- From a slow start ( 5 receptions for 24 yards- 0 TDs in Weeks 1 & 2) to much better ( 7 receptions for 37 yards- 2 TDs in Weeks 3 & 4) QB Peyton Manning is playing much better now that he’s no longer under center, but starting in the shotgun. He will find Daniels more and more – GREAT match up Week 5 vs OAK

Fantasy Football After Week 4

Fantasy Football After Week 4 by Utter-Fantasy writer & illustrator Doug Bowles

If you knew this is how it would be after 4 Weeks…then you’re smarter than me!

Even though the unpredictability of the NFL can drive fantasy owners crazy, it’s also the one thing that probably makes it the most fun. If we all knew what was going to happen, the season would be over after the September draft. But we don’t, so along the way, a profusion of surprises happen that ultimately effects the outcome of every single fantasy league being played…all 2 million+ of them.

So after 4 weeks of football, I have compiled a list of several NFL realities that I most certainly didn’t see coming, and “If you knew this is how it would be…you’re smarter than me…Einstein”

4 Weeks ago, I would not have predicted that….

ARI- The Cardinals would acquire free agent CJ2K Aug 17th and he would be the #4 RB in the NFL

ATL- RB D Freeman, who was passed up for RB St Jackson all of 2014, would have 7 TDs and #2 ranked RB for fantasy points

BALT- RB J Forsett, who was 8th ranked RB for 2014, would only have 274 yards after Week 4 – 0 TDs

BUFF- Starting QB Tyrod Taylor would have better fantasy stats than both Mannings, Foles and Cam Newton

CAR– would be 4-0 after losing WR K Benjamin

CHI- would be shopping RB Matt Forte

CINN- Andy Dalton would be the 3rd ranked QB in the NFL

CLEV- HC Pettine and WR D Bowe still would have jobs

DAL- would be in 1st place in the NFC East Division ( 2-2) after losing WR Dez and QB Romo

DEN- WR Dem Thomas would only have 1 TD reception

DET- RB Joique Bell would go from 98% owned ( Week 1) in Yahoo leagues to 67% owned in Week 4

GB- WR James Jones would have more receiving yards than WR R Cobb and the same number of TD receptions ( 4)

HOU- Despite the ridiculous QB carousel by HC B O’Brien, WR D Hopkins would be the #5 WR in th NFL

IND- QB A Luck would look like a bust for fantasy owners who drafted him in Rounds 1 & 2

JACK- QB B Bortles would have more passing yards than GB QB A Rodgers ( 996 yards to 995 yards)

MIA- RB Lamar Miller would only have 131 rushing yards and 0 TDs ( 45 RBs in the NFL have better stats)

MINN- QB T Bridgewater would be as bad as he is- only 2 TD passes after 4 games

NE- QB Tom Brady would be the 5th ranked QB in the NFL playing only 3 games- ( Week 4 was a bye)

N.O.- WR B Cooks would be a huge bust so far for fantasy owners with only 215 yards and 0 TDs

NYG- WR Odell Beckham would have only 2 TD receptions and would be held to under 45 yards in 2 of 4 games

NYJ- Jets would be 3-1 and have a better passing ranked offense than running ranked offense

OAK- QB D Carr would have 7 TDs to only 2 INTs-

PHIL– WR Jordan Matthews would only have 1 TD reception and only 1 game over 80 yard receiving

PITT- WR M Wheaton could be this much of a bust ( 156 total yards- 0 TDs) w/ WR M Bryant OUT on suspension

SD- RB Melvin Gordon would have 0 TDs after 4 games

SF- QB Colin Kaepernick could fail this miserably- 22 of 44 in past 2 games- 0 TD passes to 5 INTS

SEA- RB M Lynch would have a pathetic 128 rushing yards, 0 TDs and OUT Week 4 with injures

STL- QB N Foles wouldn’t top 300 passing yards in any game, and top 200 only once

TB- WR Mike Evans could be targeted 28 times in 3 games ( he was OUT Week 1) and yet only have 10 receptions (0 TDs)

TENN- QB M Mariota would be as prolific as he is already- 8 TDs with only 2 INTs ( Week 4 Bye)
 
WASH– RB Matt Jones would emerge as a fantasy star in Week 2 ( 19/123 and 2 TDs)  then drop to 18/49 yards Weeks 3 & 4

My Peek at a Fantasy Mock Draft

 


My Peek at a Fantasy Mock Draft by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator & Mock Draft Zealot Doug Bowles

Roughly 4 weeks + until our first preseason game for 2015 (NFL/Hall of Fame Game- Aug. 9, Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota ) and when I am not writing or illustrating about fantasy football, I am participating in, or watching mock fantasy drafts closely. One of my favorite websites to see completed mock drafts and to participate in a mock draft is at http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com …8-10-12- even 14 team mock drafts are available.

Here’s the top 9 rounds of a draft I recent devoured, but did not participate in.
PeekImage
First thing that hits me from the 1st round is that fantasy owners with the #1 pick are trusting AP. I know he’s a super-athlete but he has been away from the game for a year, AND make no mistake about it, he is still plenty pissed off that the Vikings for not back him 100% in his child-abuse case ( and personally, I am glad they didn’t). If RB LeVeon Bell wasn’t facing the 3 game suspension, AP wouldn’t be considered at #1. I’ll be drafting Jamaal, Eddie and Marshawn ahead of AP.

The second thing that stands out is WR Odell Beckham going as the 3rd overall WR. I can see plenty of arguments that favor taking #1 WR and certainly sooner than the 13th overall selection, as he went in this draft. He played in only 12 games, and yet was the 6th ranked WR for 2014. He broke 24 New York Giants franchise records… and 34 NFL Records ? ( see NY Giants Team Profile for entire list). Antonio Brown is sensational, as is Dez, but Beckham is game changer, and I want him badly.

RB DeMarco Murray- Sensational 2014 season, no doubt about it. However, the truth is the Dallas O-Line is the BEST in the NFL, and your grandmother could have ran for 1200 yards and scored 12 TDs with the holes they made for Murray. Why do you think Jerry Jones made no effort to re-sign Murray? Because he’s ordinary. He had good burst thru holes that were as wide as Broadway Tunnel. Remember Seattle’s RB Shaun Alexander in ’05? HUGE year, then he lost his incredible fullback Mack Strong and members of Seattle’s O-Line, and Alexander sudden wasn’t a #1 RB anymore. Add that to Murray’s new home in Philly, where he’ll share time with RBs Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles ( and don’t think he won’t ) and the fact that he was way over-used last year, and you have an RB crashing down to Earth fantasy-wise. Call me crazy if you want, but I’m drafting 16 RBs before Murray. You can laugh at me in January if you want…..or vise versa :)

QBs. Everyone who knows me, knows that I ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, wait for a QB. I’m not saying everyone else has to, but in 2014 no one passed for more yards than Ben Roethlisberger and I got him a few times in 2014 near the 10th round. He didn’t go in this draft until round 9, even after his huge season. That’s a quality fantasy pick. A-A-Ron and Luck are great to have, but I do love me some RBs and WRs early, and it has never hurt me to get a Brady, a Rivers, a Romo or a Matt Ryan or even Eli as late as round 8. Peyton dropping to Round 5 and Brees to Round 6 is surprising. My top #2 tier for QBs always has about 13 QBs in it! I can draft other players round after round, until this tier gets too thin, then I jump in, and get two of them. Just look who “Rookie” could have gotten if he passed on Wilson in the 5th Round and instead grabbed Roethlisberger in the 8th!

TE Jimmy Graham going is the 2nd TE off the boards but I don’t trust huge fantasy points from him now that he’s in Seattle. That team runs the ball, or they find different ways to score week to week, so Graham won’t be as dependable as he was in New Orleans. Even more shocking is TE Travis Kelce going 3rd. Graham and Brees had great chemistry. Will QB Wilson and Graham have the same? I don’t know. As for Kelce, I am tired of hearing about his “up-coming break out year”. He had 5 TDs last year, on a team that had zero TD passes going to it’s wide receivers. You take Kelce, I’ll take Olsen, or Bennett of Fleener. ( I do not like Julius Thomas in Jacksonville either.)

Other things that stick out to me…..because I can’t help It…

***WR Calvin Johnson is a future HOFer but he is going as the 6th overall WR and often sooner. Sorry, but that’s too early for a guy that will be a year older, and who ranked #15 WR last season. ( and I am Detroit Lions guy.) I hope he’s healthier and proves me wrong, but I like Jordy and AJ over Megatron.

*** RB J Forsett, despite his impressive 2014 season, is too early for me as the 12th RB off the board.

***WR Sammy Watkins’ fantasy stock pummets for me this September. I do not like QB Matt Cassel or QB EJ Manuel, AND defense coordinators have had all winter to scheme for the only WR weapon on the team. ( WR Percy Harvin is making his yearly preseason noise again…..”This is my year!” Maybe he will, but I don’t pick “maybes”.

*** RB Ande Ellington worries me. Please take him early, so I don’t have to consider him later.

***WR Mike Evans had a monster rookie season, and although many think rookie QB Jameis Winston is an upgrade over QBs McCown and Glennon, I do not share in that opinion. Winston has never faced NFL defenses before, and they are going to come at him a warp speed. I’m a “I’ll believe it when I see it” guy, so i.e…..WR Mike Evans stock drops for me. I currently have 14 WRs I like now before him in Utter-Fantasy WR Rankings.

*** RB F Gore was a nice selection in the 4th Round. I LOVE him this year in Indianapolis. DO NOT let him get passed you, if for some reason he drops to the 5th.

*** WR Jeremy Maclin is a guy I’m avoiding. KC will be as conservative as they always are….bet on it.

*** RB Latavius Murray is a guy I want, but I would have grabbed RB Le Garrette Blount before Murray.

*** RB Bishop Sankey, CJ Spiller nor Reggie B will get on my fantasy teams, unless it’s way DEEP into the draft.

*** WR Jarvis Landry was an interesting fill in guy for me last year ( he ended the 2014 season as the 42nd ranked WR ) and I fully expected him to build on his rookie year…however, that was before Miami added Kenny Stills, DeVante parker, Greg Jennings and TE Jordan Cameron. These are TOO many mouths to feed people. 32nd WR off the board is too early. I like plenty of other options, that aren’t even here.

*** RB Jeremy Hill would not have been selected before LeSean McCoy two weeks ago, but I am buying into the Jeremy Hill love. Maybe not before C J Anderson ( Denver wants Peyton fresh) or before Forte…the #1 RB in the passing game.

And lastly…..( although I could dissect this draft until my eyes are shot)…

*** RB Darren McFadden should not be drafted anywhere’s near the 8th round or 12th round!

Hope your fantasy juices are getting pumped…mine are.