1st and 10 with DFF Week 13

1st and 10 with DFF Week 13 by Utter-Fantasy Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10 with DFF” is a weekly segment of fantasy insights and a joint endeavor between the Dynasty Football Factory and Utter-Fantasy Football. We will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which may carry major fantasy implications.

Michael Goins is the owner of Dynasty Football Factory, which is a website that you must visit daily, or you are missing out on great fantasy football, especially dynasty formatted fantasy football. Follow him on twitter @DynastyFFactory

On Monday afternoon, approximately 2:00 PM Central, I will post the latest segment in “1st & 10 with DFF.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions for Michael, really let us know.

 

Week 13-  June 13th, 2016

Special Guest Writer-Dynasty Football Factory’s Michael Hughes for the new- “1st and 10 with DFF Week 10″.  Be sure to follow Michael on Twitter @thatshiftybloke

 

Utter-Fantasy #1)  I live in Kansas City, so in leagues with local friends and neighbors etc, we have a “homer” or two who will draft a lot of “Chief’s” players. Sometimes fantasy football owners will draft players because they like them and like rooting for them. Are either of these ever a deciding factor for you in any drafts?

OK Homer

DFF Response: (#1) This is definitely a factor for me, but I try my best to exercise caution and restraint when employing the “I like this guy” methodology in drafting players. For instance, in my first and second round I won’t allow the “like” factor to come into play if there is an objectively more talented player on the board. If I am debating a few players in the middle rounds and they are statistically even and their upside/team situations are similar, I’ll ask myself who I would rather root for and draft that player. In the late rounds, especially when there are only role players on the board, I look to pick up guys I want to root for just to make my roster that much more fun.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2) Below is the NFL schedule for Week 1 of the upcoming 2016 season. What games in Week 1 are you particularly excited to see?

2016 NFL Week 1

DFF Response: Great question. I’m excited for all of them because I can’t wait for football season to start! In particular, though, I am very anxious to see two games: (1) the Vikes / Titans, because I’m an east coast Vikings fan and I can’t get enough of them; and (2) Steelers / Washington. I am interested to see, for fantasy purposes, which Pittsburgh wide receiver emerges as Martavis Bryant’s 2016 replacement as the team’s WR2. Bryant is, of course, serving a full year suspension for positive drug tests and while I think his replacement will only have the job for the next year, I want to scoop that guy up if he’s on waivers. For Washington, I am very excited to see how Kirk Cousins follows up an amazing end to the 2015 season. I’ll also be scouting Josh Doctson at the wideout spot and I hope to see Jordan Reed continue his dominance as the team’s top tight end.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3) So far in recent mock drafts, fantasy owners do not seem to be worried about about GB WR Jordy Nelson’s 2015 injury, and are drafting him before Alshon Jeffrey, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas. Are there any names here that you would draft before selecting Nelson?

DFF Response: I think people are convinced that Jordy is fully healthy and won’t have the same injury again. When he was hurt last year, the injury took place as he landed on the ground after jumping up in the air to catch a pass — hopefully that type of impact, awkward as it was, does not befall him again with similar results. I like Nelson, too, so I understand the high draft pick that many owners are spending on him. Personally I have higher hopes for guy like Cooper and Evans so I would be drafting them earlier than Nelson this season. With his top-end route running, I think Cooper is poised to be a machine in Oakland. It definitely doesn’t hurt that he has a great connection with Derek Carr. As for TB’s Mike Evans, the sky is the limit. Last year he suffered from a lot of dropped passes but he has made a noticeable effort to get synced up with the leader of the Bucs’ offense, QB Jameis Winston. I believe that the added off-season work will pay dividends quickly this year and I expect Evans to be a firecracker from the first snap! Brandon Marshall is not as high on my list because of questions at quarterback and, in all honesty, I am concerned that his frenetic scoring pace in 2015 may not continue with the same vigor. I like Demaryius, too, and I’ve seen him thrive with a great quarterback, and with a mediocre quarterback. When comparing Nelson and Thomas’ quarterbacks, though, I will ride with Aaron Rodgers for 2016 and therefore would take Jordy before Demaryius.

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  Fantasy Football Index magazine 2015-

” We all know there’s a lot of luck involved in fantasy football. Every lucky win you have, is someone’s else’s bad luck.”
How much do you agree with this statement?

DFF Response: I don’t entirely agree with this statement for one reason: I don’t believe that there is, for instance, a meter of luck and 100% of that luck has to be dispersed at each game. Good fortune for one does not necessarily mean bad fortune for another. Granted, there are some freak plays that take place in a game and if you own the beneficiary player you probably feel like you got away with one while the owner facing off against that player feels like one was stolen. In that unique circumstance, yes I do believe the statement applies. However, for the majority of good plays and bad breaks I just believe they were mean to unfurl in the manner that they do! Therefore, just because someone gets lucky in a positive way, it doesn’t necessary mean that the other owner had bad luck.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5) Prior to the beginning of the 2015 NFL season, RB Joique Bell was at the top of the Lion’s depth chart, and now he is looking for a team to play for as a free agent. Can you think of a team that, in your opinion, would be a great fit for him right now?

DFF Response: I think San Diego is the way to go here. They didn’t do much in the draft and offseason to bring in RB help and we all watched Melvin Gordon go through a rough patch in 2015. This is not an indictment on Gordon and, to be quite honest, I believe San Diego expects Melvin Gordon to be their bell-cow for years to come. In the short term, however, we’ve seen Gordon undergo micro fracture surgery which opens up a Pandora’s box of uncertainty so it isn’t completely outside of the realm of possibility that the Chargers would or could bring in a veteran bruiser type back. I know they have Branden Oliver, but he similarly has been hurt and plays more of the Danny Woodhead pass-catching role. They also, obviously, have Woodhead on the roster – but he plays a different style of football than Joique Bell and I believe those two types of backs can coexist in a backfield with great success.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6)  Last week in our Week 11- 1st and 10 segment, with my role to respond to DFF’s questions, my reply to an inquiry about TB RB Doug Martin (paraphrased) was….“I believe the case for Doug Martin finishing the 2016 season as an RB1 is a strong one- Martin is in one of the few one-back offenses- Martin is still relatively young at 27 years old- Martin has a good cast of talented teammates around him.” It just occurred to me that back in 2015, I was high on WASH Alfred Morris for the “exact same reasons…even their ages are only a month apart”. As you know, Morris ended 2015 as the 45th RB in the NFL. Should I reconsider my position on Martin due to this revelation, or are the situations different enough to stand pat?

DFF Response: I think you should stand pat and continue to place your faith in Doug Martin for this upcoming season. Morris and Martin were in different situations last year and they are in equally different situations this year. In 2015, Martin was clearly the #1 RB and was given those snaps despite the existence of a shifty pass catching back in Charles Sims on the roster. Alfred Morris, may have been the #1 at the beginning of 2015, but in fact, saw less time because of not one but two (and eventually three) other backs: Matt Jones, Chris Thompson, and Pierre Thomas. Now in Dallas, Morris is 100% behind Ezekiel Elliott on the depth charts and I don’t see him getting nearly what Doug Martin will get in terms of opportunities, goal line carries, and overall playing time. This year, Morris can take a step even further back but I think the Buccaneers’ success will be proportional to Doug Martin’s success.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) In 2015, the Browns gave Bowe $9 million guaranteed money, and all the Browns got from the washed-up veteran was five catches for 53 scoreless yards. He was paid over $169,000 per yard. The numbers are truly laughable. Not to pour salt in the “city’s horrible acquisition wound” but because of their track record, didn’t it just figure that it would be Cleveland to do this?

DFF Response: You’re absolutely right: it had to be Cleveland. I’m sure the Browns’ heart was in the right place when it sought to bring in a veteran WR to help solidify its receiving corps and help tutor the younger wideouts. Unfortunately, as is usually the case with Cleveland sports, it completely blew up in the team’s face and became more of a distraction than anything else. I don’t want to go this far, but I would posit that the Dwayne Bowe fiasco had such a monumental effect on the organization in the negative that it very likely led to the team’s decision to draft what feels like a million rookie WRs in this year’s draft. It’s a shame. However, Hue Jackson is going to put his stamp on this team and I think they’ll do better than the past few years.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8) Please take these 4 names from the Saints receiving corps and rank how you would draft them in a redraft league, in a dynasty league and in a PPR league. Also, is there any other wide out on their depth chart with any fantasy value?

– WRs Cooks, Snead, Thomas, and Coleman-

DFF Response: For me, it starts with Brandin Cooks. I am taking him as early as the second round in dynasty drafts and honestly I can picture myself doing the same in redraft. Cooks has proven he can handle the spotlight, the targets, and the opportunities he’s been given. Other than getting injured during his rookie year, he has produced very well and I expect that to continue. He’s lighting fast, too; that’s a recipe for success in the NFL. Next is Willie Snead. I had my ups and downs with Snead last year and actually got burned by him in a few dynasty leagues when I either didn’t draft him/pick him up off waivers, or traded him away. I think he has done enough to show that when given the chance to be on the field he can definitely get the job done. He has good size too and that is something New Orleans needs to make use of this year. I would draft him in dynasty leagues at round 5 and redraft in rounds 6 or 7. Michael Thomas has a lot of upside as he comes to the NFL with good college tape. I think he will be a great complement to the Saints’ offense. Let’s see what he does this year, but I expect him to be a mainstay in NO. Brandon Coleman had an optimal opportunity with the Saints and all he did with it was lose the job to Snead. I am keeping hope alive that he will work out but I am not investing much draft capital in Coleman. I’ll watch from the sidelines!

PPR: Cooks; Snead; Thomas; Coleman
Dynasty: Cooks; Thomas; Snead; Coleman
Redraft: Cooks; Snead; Thomas; Coleman

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) Soon, many will be posting their rankings for the NFL team’s offensive lines for 2016. Indianapolis drafted 4 new players for their O-Line, who haven’t played together, haven’t developed any chemistry together or even had a chance to prove that they are good NFL players. Therefore, can the Colts O-Line be ranked anywhere except near the bottom?

DFF Response:  Optimistically, I will say that the Colts’ offensive line can be ranked higher than the basement of the league. I would wait to see how the gel, if at all, during the preseason before I completely close the book on their projected 2016 success. However, in all actuality, it is more likely than not that they will be near the bottom of the league. I don’t base that off of the fact that the line has four rookies, necessarily, but that is certainly a factor. The biggest component to my prediction is the fact that most of these guys have not played together yet. There you have it: togetherness / chemistry / familiarity. I believe that a competent offensive line is predicated on knowing the other guys’ tendencies: “if I shift left, will the player to my right instinctively know to lean to my side?” etc. Indy’s line will need to bond and understand each other before it creeps out from the basement.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10) Can the Pat’s new acquisition TE Martellus Bennett, with TE Rob Gronkowski, be the 1-2 punch at the tight position, that Gronk and Hernandez were back in 2011?

DFF Response: I think that the Pats’ top-two TEs can replicate the success of the 2011 Gronk/Hernandez duo. I am not convinced that they will, though. To be clear, I believe that if the situation presented itself in the same vein as 2011, that Bennett and Gronkowski are talented enough to pull off the same offensives heroics that Gronk/Hernandez did. However, I don’t believe the Pats will employ the same exact scheme that led to tandem successes in 2011. Bill Belichick is very keen and he is probably ahead of the curve in this instance, too. I believe that Belichick expects the league to gameplan to defend the 2011 Gronk/Hernandez tight end offensive plan. I secretly think Belichick plans on going in a different direction — not ignoring the TE spot, but I don’t think he’ll use Bennett in the same way that Hernandez was used; it will be another wrinkle in an already sophisticated offense. Therefore, my prediction is that Bennett and Gronk will have the same success as Gronk and Hernandez did in 2011 if the Pats decide to run the same offense. If, however, the team adapts and tries to stay one page ahead of the league, then the two TEs will still have productive seasons but the numbers will not be as impressive as the numbers from 2011.

Next week Utter-Fantasy will have 10 new questions for the Dynasty Football Factory

 

1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 12
1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 11
1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 10
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 9
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 8
1ST AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 7
1st and 10 with DFF Week 6
1st and 10 with DFF Week 5
1st AND 10 WITH DFF WEEK 4
1st and 10 with DFF Week 3
1st and 10 with DFF Week 2
1st and 10 with DFF Week 1