1st and 10 Week 19

1st and 10 Week 19 by Utter-Fantasy Football Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10″ is a weekly segment by Utter-Fantasy.com, getting fantasy football insights from a knowledgeable person in the fantastic fantasy football community. With 10 questions each week, we will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which ones might carry major fantasy football implications.

Every Monday, at approximately 12:00 Noon Central, I will post the latest segment of “1st & 10.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions, really let us know.

 

1st and 10 Week 19-  July 25th, 2016

“1st and 10″ Week 19 -Special Guest Writer: Arthur Richardson…Co-Owner of Fantasyipa.com.

Special thanks to Arthur – Be sure to follow him on Twitter @Fantasy_IPA

 

Utter-Fantasy #1)  In 2015, the Jacksonville Jaguars had the 6th worst defense in the NFL. In the 2016 NFL Draft, they selected 4 defensive players and signed DE Malik Jackson, FS Tashaun Gipson, and CB Prince Amukamara. Are they automatically a better defense starting 2016, or will this side of the team take time to jell and have to prove that they are an improved defense?

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: I think that the influx of talent (including a rookie class full of upside) and it being Bradley’s 4th year with the team, that it can only mean positive things for the Jaguars.  It may take a couple of games, but I really see the Jags as having a chance to ascend at least to the upper half of defenses if not higher.  While there will be some time needed to establish chemistry (and health will play a big factor)… I do point to the Jaguars as the team most likely take the biggest leap as a defense in 2016.  So yes, I am on board with a big year from the Jags Defense and am even grabbing them as a flyer DST2 in Best Ball leagues.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2) If you could ask RB Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, and/or Jim Brown a question, what would it be?

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: I would ask Barry Sanders about his true passions or lack thereof as it pertains to the NFL.  I find it amazing that one of the most talented players in history would be willing to give up Professional Football early, in that sense… I often wonder what it is that he is passionate about and/or what took his passion away from the NFL.

I would ask Walter Payton how it felt to become the all-time leader in rushing and compare/contrast with his accomplishments as a family man.  He’s one of my favorite players of all time and it’s really nice to know he was charitable and grounded with strong family roots.

Jim Brown is tough because he has played football, been a political voice and has also had a lot of Hollywood moments…. literally.  I would give him an open forum to discuss whatever he wanted and see where he took it!!

 

Utter-Fantasy #3) TE Ben Watson is in nearly every top 12 statistical category for 2015 tight ends. I realize that the Baltimore TE depth chart is crowded, but he is currently on top of it, and yet Watson’s ADP isn’t even in the top 20. Are fantasy football owners sleeping on a possible sleeper?

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: I think we could be sleeping, but looking at the tight ends going ahead of him, I can only see 2-3 that I “might” question.  So I think he may be right where he should be as far as ADP, given the lack of a track record beyond Brees and the TE friendly offense in New Orleans. More importantly the extremely muddled offensive situations that are not only around the Tight ends but the running backs and wide receivers in Baltimore.  While I wouldn’t be surprised if he outperforms his ADP, I am not really targeting him.

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  New HOU QB Brock Osweiler- I want you to play both optimist and pessimist. Tell me why QB Osweiler will have a great season in 2016, and tell me why QB Osweiler will have a bad season in 2016.

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson:  Optimist– **“Brock can throw 70 yards on his back”.  I am pretty big on infrastructure and think that Bill O’brien and his system could be a great combination for any young quarterback.  Houston made a sizable investment to bring in an unproven, if not slightly proven commodity in Osweiler.  He will be given every opportunity to succeed and will definitely have the backing of the front office.
**Quote: Doug Bowles-Fantasy IPA Podcast 2016

Pessimist– While Brock Osweiler has the physical tools to become a great QB, my biggest concern is whether he has the mental side of the game down.   The “Belichick/Patriots” offensive scheme which O’brien is implementing in Houston has been known to render physical talents into bench players that could not pick up it up. Couple that with the fact that Osweiler is in a new system, that he has not had long stretches in production and that he had a propensity to hold onto the ball too long raises red flags for me.  It could take “a while” for this offense to become second nature and in today’s NFL we do not always have “a while”.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5) In 2015, RB LeSean McCoy dominated the Buffalo backfield with 1187 total yards, but he did not dominate in touchdowns for a Buffalo running back. RB Karlos Williams got that honor with 9 TDs ( McCoy 5 TDs). Williams also had 613 total yards to go with his TDs, and was the #32 RB for 2015. With McCoy one year older, can you see one of the other Buffalo running backs  dominating the Buffalo backfield in 2016 in both total yards and touchdowns?

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: I definitely don’t see Williams dominating Buffalo’s backfield, especially after recent struggles with weight and more importantly the 4 game suspension.  I still see Shady Mccoy as being the clear cut feature back in this offense for 2016 regardless of Williams’ status.  I think the main question now would be who is next in line.  Mike Gillislee actually showed very well in spot duty last season and the Rookie Jonathan Williams could factor in.  If I am drafting today, I would grab Gillislee as the handcuff, but would monitor the Rookie’s performance and be on the lookout for Buffalo to bring in a veteran.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6) Despite his post-season heroics ( 7 for 145 yards and 2 Tds in the 2015 Divisional Round game vs Arizona)…GB WR Jeff Janis is getting very little love from the fantasy football community, in ADP and in mock drafts. Considering the Packers high octane offense, and GB WR Davante Adams propensity to drop passes, why aren’t  fantasy football owners believers in Janis?

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: Well there are multiple things keeping Owners apprehensive
·         Owners have been swinging and missing on Janis for a couple of years now
·         Very small sample size of productive games
·         Very crowded receiving corps in Green Bay
·         Repeated reports of inconsistency and inability to pick up the mental side of the game

With all of these issues it makes sense that Janis’ ADP is pretty low.  I tend to own him in quite a few leagues at his current price.  So while I understand the reasons for his ADP, mark me down as someone targeting him at that price and hoping for a 4th year emergence ala Jordy Nelson!

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) Every year the NFL talks about reducing the number of preseason games (4) for a multiple of reasons, but apparently the owners are making too much money on them to ever move forward with the change. Do you think the NFL should reduce the number of preseason games to 3?

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: I don’t really think that they should change the preseason format. I know that some of the games do not feature much playing time from the starters, but that will also be shaken up if we drop a game. I do, however, think that the general public is right that the money is a main driver.  From a coaching perspective, I  imagine it is beneficial to see all 4 preseason games to aid them in choosing the correct players to roster. Each game translates to things like game prep, practice reps, wider outcomes based on opponents….. From a consumer point, I think 1 less game would be fine, but from a global perspective I think the current format is fine.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8) 2015 Post Season Conference Games- Denver beat New England 20-18. Carolina whipped Arizona 40-14, sending them to Super Bowl vs Denver. The Broncos won SB 50 24-10. What surprised you most about how all this played out?

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: On an overall scale, I don’t think I was really too surprised.  I have heard as long as I can remember that “Defense Wins Championships”.  And this was just another example of that adage being proved out.  If I was surprised by anything it was just how dominant the pass rush from the Broncos was and how it not only physically put a stamp on the game, but mentally seemed to always have the Broncos in the driver’s seat.  I think the secondary deserves a ton of credit as well.  If you can get to Brady as often as they did, your secondary has to reduce the opportunities in a quick strike horizontal offense. I think the Pass Rush will always be remembered, but the Defense as a whole was pretty unbelievable for the eventual Champs.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) Only 4 tight ends had 1000+ receiving yards in 2016. Only 3 had double digit touchdowns and of the top 38 tight ends from 2015, 23 had 3 or less TD receptions. Why is it taking so long for NFL teams to discover the tight end as an offensive weapon, like New England and Carolina for example, have done for years?  ( TE Darren Fells lead Arizona tight ends with ONLY 311 receiving yards in 2015!)

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: I agree that many NFL teams have been slow to utlilize their tight end as an offensive weapon, like Arizona which you pointed out. I think there a few reasons for this. 1) Not every team has an incredible athlete at the position that can be a large, quick dependable target over the middle making contested catches, like the Pats and Panthers have. 2) It’s depends on what the head coach and offensive coordinator are comfortable with calling….i.e. preferring the way that receivers can separate, leading to more uncontested catches and which theoretically should result in more success. 3) By the very nature/definition of the TE position, they are much more relied on as a blocker.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10) ( The following question happened last year to a friend of mine in one of our leagues, so I wanted to ask you) ….Have you ever thought after a fantasy football draft, that yours was the worst team, only to have it win everything?

FantasyIPA’s Arthur Richardson: I have definitely come out of a draft feeling like it was a terrible draft only to field a very good team that year.  I would also say that the other side has happened…coming out of a draft where you love your team and it ends up bombing.  The main takeaway is that there are many different factors that go into Fantasy production and you have to be nimble.  Injury, under the radar emergence, suspensions…..are all things that change player value, you have to be on your toes and ready to react.  Fantasy Football is a week to week game.

I preach max effort no matter what state your team is in.  Drafting is important but waivers, trades, starting the right players are just a few other  factors that will determine success or failure.  “All you have to do is get to the dance, once in, anything can happen!”

 

Next Week’s Guest….1st and 10 alum DFF’s Michael Hughes

1ST AND 10 WEEK 18 WITH QUESTFFL’s MATT DOUGHERTY
1ST AND 10 Week 17 WITH TFA’S JENNIFER SMITH
1ST AND 10 WEEK 16 WITH RTFANTASYSPORTS
1st AND 10 Week 15 with Eric dewalt
1st AND 10 Week 14 With Jamie Black
1ST AND 10 WEEK 13 WITH DFF’s MICHAEL HUGHES