1st and 10 Week 22

1st and 10 Week 22 by Utter-Fantasy Football Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10″ is a weekly segment by Utter-Fantasy.com, getting fantasy football insights from a knowledgeable person in the fantastic fantasy football community. With 10 questions each week, we will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which ones might carry major fantasy football implications.

Every Monday, at approximately 12:00 Noon Central, I will post the latest segment of “1st & 10.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions, really let us know.

 

1st and 10 Week 22-  August 15th, 2016

“1st and 10″ Week 22 – Special Guest Writer- the 1 & only…..FFcouchcoach

Be sure to follow The FFcouchcoach on Twitter @FFcouchcoach

and visit FFcouchcoach.com often!

 

Utter-Fantasy #1)  WASH TE Jordan Reed is currently ranked higher in ADPs than is CAR TE Greg Olsen. NE WR Julian Edleman is currently ranked higher in ADPs than are WRs Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Larry Fizgerald. The reason I write about TE Reed and WR Edleman is because both are often injured and are unable to play a full 16 game season. Are fantasy football owners putting too little importance on a player’s durability? ( Reed is being ranked above TE G Olsen, who hasn’t missed a game since 2011)

FFcouchcoach:   I love Jordan Reed.  I own him myself in one league… but I traded for him.  In a startup draft, I will more-than-likely never own Reed because of how high his ADP is.  I don’t believe in drafting a TE early because the TE pool is so rich.  Obviously, there’s a drop off in tiers… but it’s more dedicated to hoarding WRs early in drafts.

Out of the 4 WRs mentioned above, the guy I’m drafting – in redraft or dynasty drafts – is Golden Tate.  He’s the man in Detroit, and I think he is going to have one hell of a season.  After that, it really depends on the type of league.  Redraft, I’m taking Larry Fitzgerald next, followed by Baldwin, then Edelman.  In dynasty, I’d go with Baldwin next, then Edelman… then Fitz.

“Injury-prone” is a term thrown around too loosely in fantasy football.  It’s something guys say as filler while they’re speaking. While a player’s injury history should be a factor to consider, I don’t allow it to become my decision-maker.  I’m more concerned with things like ADP value… and situation.  As I stated, I wouldn’t draft Jordan Reed – but it has nothing to do with his injury proneness… it’s because he’s being taken too high in drafts for my liking.  At the same time, I also would not draft Julian Edelman… but it’s only partially because of his age & injuries.  My reason for preferring someone else over him is because he will be without Tom Brady for 4 weeks to open up the 2016 season. Compound that with his injury issues, and I’m staying away.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2) Are you in agreement with so many in the fantasy football community, that SF running back Carlos Hyde is “an amazing fit” for the Chip Kelly system?

FFcouchcoach: I’ll begin by disclosing that I am an Eagles fan.  I was one of the bozos chanting “In Chip We Trust” when he came riding in on his Super-Fast-Paced-Offense Stead.  Needless to say… I have a bit of a sour taste left in my mouth.  That being said; the Chip Kelly offense does produce very nice fantasy football running backs.  It’s all about that volume, and the 49ers will be running lots of plays under Chip.  As a result, Carlos Hyde will be fed.  Another 49ers RB to consider later in drafts is Shaun Draughn.  He’s a very nice PPR back, and you can stash him on the back end of your bench for cheap. I wrote more about Shaun Draughn here.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3)  NE TE Rob Gronkowski is the clear #1 tight end in the NFL, and the drop off from #1 to #2 is the biggest gap at any position. Which position has the 2nd biggest drop off and who are the 2 players involved in your decision?

FFcouchcoach:  The WR position in fantasy is extremely deep… and I’d say the transition from tier to tier is the most gradual, making the drop-off not so drastic.  When looking at it, I’d say the next dramatic drop is at the RB position.  When you take a look at the Team FFCC Consensus Dynasty RB Rankings, you’ll see what I mean.  The top 6 RBs are: Gurley, Elliot, Johnson, Bell, Miller, Ingram.  After that, you have Yeldon, Freeman, Hyde, Gio.  The drop off in talent – and in offensive role – is pretty clear.

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  The running back situation for the New England Patriots may be the most unpredictable for fantasy football owners on draft day. Take a stab at this backfield and tell me how you think 2016 will shake out between the current roster of Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount, James White, Brandon Bolden and Donald Brown.

FFcouchcoach: I really like Dion Lewis, and I think the Patriots do too.  I can remember watching a game last season where Dion Lewis fumbled twice… and we still saw him play!  That, in my opinion, was huge because similar past instances have shown us that a fumbling RB on a Bill Belichick offense does not step foot onto the field.  Lewis is a nice PPR back, and showed he’s got what it takes to run with the big dogs before suffering a season-ending injury in 2015.  Blount is an OK buy later in drafts.  He is nothing to get excited about, but he’s affordable in drafts, and can be a decent plug-and-play in a pinch.  The problem is; his use is so sporadic, it’s more frustrating to own him than it’s worth.  A guy in New England I really like that no one is really talking about is Tyler Gaffney.  Keep an eye on this kid – and check out his profile on PlayerProfile.  Wowza!

 

Utter-Fantasy #5) Pittsburgh has a bye in Week 8. Even though RB LeVeon Bell now has a maximum of playing in 12 games. who are some of the upper echelon running backs that you still rank below Bell?

FFcouchcoach: The most notable guys I have ranked below him are Gio Bernard and T.J. Yeldon.  It’s not because I wouldn’t want to own these 2 – it’s just that Le’Veon Bell is just that damn good (when playing).  That being said… I am avoiding Bell.  This is one of those instances where calling someone injury prone is acceptable, and that’s not even the reason I’m avoiding him.  I’m avoiding him because he is a knucklehead who can’t keep his head on straight.  He’s a rule-breaker, and that could result in a wasted early 1st round selection.  I prefer to stay away from the trouble maker players.  It’s like buying a house in a bad neighborhood, then sinking a ton of money into it in hopes that you can turn around and sell it for a profit.  You will never recover that value… because of outside factors, not because of the house.  It’s an amazing house with all the bells & whistles… but it doesn’t change the fact that you can get robbed at any time.  Bell could be suspended at any time.  Amazing talent… not worth the investment he’ll cost you.

 

Utter-Fantasy #6) Would the Hall of Fame game fiasco been avoided if Goodell had not been the NFL commissioner? (cancelled on August 7th)

FFcouchcoach: If I were the commish, I would be out there with my shirt off… sloshing a grading rake back & forth yelling “This game is happening, people!!”

Perhaps ole Roger needs to try harder?  Haha, kidding!  I was pretty surprised when the cancellation happened – but I just kinda went on about my business.  Definitely weird… just not sure if it rests squarely on the commish’s shoulders.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) Green Bay and Philadelphia both have a “Bye” week as soon as Week 4 of the NFL regular season. This will mean that they will have to play 13 games in a row after their bye. Is this an advantage, a disadvantage or irrelevant for these two teams?

FFcouchcoach: I don’t think it’s going to matter for the Eagles.  Either way, this team is expected to be pretty bad in 2016.  The Packers are ranked at 32nd (dead last) for Strength of Schedule, and I’d think a Week 4 BYE would have something to do with that.  The Green Bay offense was almost unrecognizable in 2015, and that was largely due to the fact that they lost WR Jordy Nelson for the season – before the season even began.  I’d imagine it’s safe to say that playing 13 straight games makes it harder to remain healthy all season long.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8)  In 2015, I recommended that fantasy football owners avoid RB Darren McFadden like the Bubonic Plague 0f 1347. Thanks to the best O-Line in the NFL, McFadden ended 2015 as the #13 running back in the NFL, and made my recommendation a very bad one. Who in 2015 ( or in previous years) have you missed on with an “avoid” recommendation?

FFcouchcoach: Before the 2015 season began, I can remember making fun of a friend of mine for hanging on to Michael Crabtree – saying that I wouldn’t give him a can of beans for him in a trade.  This was when Crabtree was still on the 49ers.  It appeared as though Crabtree was a fantasy stinker… a let-down.  Crabtree signed on with the Raiders, and he became a valuable asset.  It happens!  Womp womp…

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) The curse of the Madden is well known, and of the past Fantasy Football Index magazine covers ( QB A Luck, QB P Manning, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Gronk. and RB Arian Foster ) only Manning has not had a disappointing season. My question to you is….do you believe in a jinx?

FFcouchcoach: Naa, I don’t believe in the mumbo jumbo.  If I can get my studs where I prefer them in a draft… I’m jumping on them!  I don’t care about any coincidental “curse”.  Let’s not forget: football is an extremely violent game.  We have 22 super athletes running at full speed towards one another & colliding… for hours on end… every week.  There are going to be injuries, and the cover of some game has zero to do with it.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10)  How much will DET QB Matthew Stafford miss “Megatron?”

FFcouchcoach: I think The Lions have brought in some really nice pieces for Matt Stafford to continue his success in the NFL – and for him to be a valuable fantasy football QB in 2016.  Like everyone else, I love Megatron… he was amazing.  But for the first time, this offense will not revolve around one guy.  I think Calvin’s absence will allow the ball to get spread around more, and Stafford’s stats won’t skip a beat.  Golden Tate is a monster after the catch, and the signing of Marvin Jones gives them a very reliable 2nd target.  The RBs are coming along nicely, and Eric Ebron seems to have escaped a big-deal injury.  I’m kind’ve excited to see what the 2016 Detroit Lions offense will do.

 

Next Week’s Guest….Mike Randle/ Fantasy Football Writer for LWOS

 

1ST AND 10 WEEK 21 WITH THE FANTASY FOOTBALL GEEK
1st AND 10 WEEK 20 WITH DFF’s MICHAEL HUGHES
1ST AND 10 WEEK 19 WITH FANTAYIPA’s ARTHUR RICHARDSON
1ST AND 10 WEEK 18 WITH QUESTFFL’s MATT DOUGHERTY
1ST AND 10 Week 17 WITH TFA’S JENNIFER SMITH
1ST AND 10 WEEK 16 WITH RTFANTASYSPORTS
1st AND 10 Week 15 with Eric dewalt
1st AND 10 Week 14 With Jamie Black
1ST AND 10 WEEK 13 WITH DFF’s MICHAEL HUGHES

1st and 10 Week 21

1st and 10 Week 21 by Utter-Fantasy Football Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles

“1st and 10″ is a weekly segment by Utter-Fantasy.com, getting fantasy football insights from a knowledgeable person in the fantastic fantasy football community. With 10 questions each week, we will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which ones might carry major fantasy football implications.

Every Monday, at approximately 12:00 Noon Central, I will post the latest segment of “1st & 10.”  If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions, really let us know.

 

1st and 10 Week 21-  August 8th, 2016

“1st and 10″ Week 21 – Special Guest Writer- DFSArmy.com’s Kevin E, aka The Fantasy Football Geek

DFSARMY

Be sure to follow The Fantasy Football Geek on Twitter @FFootballGeek

 

Utter-Fantasy #1)  Denver likely won’t be dominating the AFC West in 2016, and Green Bay is favored again in the NFC North. Which divisions do you anticipate having the biggest changes happening in the upcoming season?

The Fantasy Football Geek: This season the AFC South is really interesting. I expect the Colts to show major improvement over their injury marred 2015 season. The Texans, Titans and Jags all look like they have significantly improved as well. That division should be up for grabs.

 

Utter-Fantasy #2) Are you a “Sunday Gameday Bar Guy”…or are you a “Mancave NFL Ticket Guy”, and what makes your Sundays special? ( my mancave, actually named the “Manpit” by my wife 15 years ago, has 6 television sets!)

The Fantasy Football Geek:  I’ve always been a mancave type of guy. You just can’t pay complete attention at a bar with all the distractions particularly on Sundays where there are multiple games happening simultaneously. I’ll have redzone network going full blast alongside a second screen with the game I’m most interested in.

 

Utter-Fantasy #3) What does your crystal ball say the headlines will be at the end of 2016 for the Cleveland Browns, and will QB/WR Terrelle Pryor be in one of those headlines?

The Fantasy Football Geek: Unfortunately, I do not see Pryor in a positive headline this season. More likely will be the resurgence of the RG3 to Gordon connection. These two guys played college ball together and now they are reunited in what will be a sort of redemption season for the duo.  Cleveland added another WR weapon, Corey Coleman, in the 1st round of the draft. With Coleman, Gordon, Barndige at TE and a surging Duke Jr at RB I think this offense has scary good potential. 

 

Utter-Fantasy #4)  What’s harder for you to deal with…..a fun, successful NFL season coming to an end, or waiting for a new one to start?

The Fantasy Football Geek:  Between writing for my website and managing multiple season long teams, and investing tons of time and energy in to daily fantasy football I generally find the end of a season bitter sweet. Sad that the action is over but also looking forward to some well earned down time. By the time June rolls around I’m itching for the action again so definitely waiting for a new season is tougher for me.

 

Utter-Fantasy #5) Even if it is highly unlikely, tell me a few NFL players that you would like to see have an unpredictably great 2016 season?

The Fantasy Football Geek: I’ll go back to RG3 from the last answer. The weapons are in place for him to have success. Hopefully the past season humbled him and helped him focus. Another guy I like as a super sleeper break out candidate is Patriots WR Chris Hogan. The Patriots brought Hogan in to be the starter at outside WR. They haven’t made much effort to acquire anyone else at the position. That tells me that Belichick believes in him and that’s good enough for me. I’m making sure to stash Hogan on my fantasy bench in all my leagues.


Utter-Fantasy #6) What impact will new acquisition WR Anquon Boldin have on the Detroit Lion’s team, and how does Boldin now affect the production of WRs Golden Tate and Marvin Jones?

The Fantasy Football Geek: I thought Jones was being overrated and overdrafted a bit prior to the Boldin acquisition. Jones was the WR2 for a while with the Bengals and he did nothing. I would not trust him as a WR3 at this point. Boldin is a nonfactor for me.

 

Utter-Fantasy #7) The 5 worst O-lines projected for 2016 are Kansas City, Detroit, LA Rams, Jacksonville and finally Seattle. Does this information change your rankings for any running backs from these 5 teams? Any of the 5 quarterbacks?

The Fantasy Football Geek:  I don’t buy in to those types of predictions. Instead, a good way to consider RB’s is to look at opposing defenses and strength of schedule. The NFC West schedule is rough this season. Initially because all the NFC West teams feature solid run defenses. Secondarily because they face the AFC East which also features some tough run defenses. Looking at those situations individually:

KC – QB Alex Smith is a situational spot starter at best for fantasy purposes and Charles is somewhat matchup proof.

Detroit – QB Matt Stafford is off the QB1 radar, Abdullah is in RB4 territory

Rams – This one is interesting. They face a brutal schedule as far as the run defenses they will face. That’s more acceptable with a player like David Johnson because he is highly utilized in the passing game. For Gurley I think this is a slight negative that drops him a smidge in my rankings.

Jacksonville – They didn’t have much of a running attack last season and I don’t expect that to change. That’s good news for Bortles and his pass catchers because they tend to score almost exclusively through the air. They also play in a high scoring division so I’m looking for big things from this offense from a fantasy production standpoint.

Seattle – Wilson, like Cam Newton, is a special player with the ability to not only negate a pass rush, but to punish teams that get too aggressive by utilizing his scrambling abilities. I love this offense as a whole and would not shy away from any of them.

 

Utter-Fantasy #8) This year ARI Larry Fitzgerald will be 33 ( August 31st). In 2015, he led the team in receiving with 1215 yards and 9 touchdowns. Fitzgerald was followed by John Brown ( 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns) and Michael Floyd  (849 yards and 6 touchdowns). Assuming QB Carson Palmer can stay healthy and have another tremendous season, will 2016 end with Fitz on top again, followed by Brown then Floyd?

The Fantasy Football Geek:  If you look back to last season, Fitzy did the most damage when Floyd was out or hobbled. Palmer loves to spread the ball around but I’d reverse the order as far as fantasy production for this season with Floyd topping the list followed by Brown and then Fitzy.

 

Utter-Fantasy #9) In redraft leagues for 2016, I am not high on not Matt Jones, Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Dion Lewis, DeMarco Murray or Ameer Abdullah. Are there any names on this list who you think I should be higher on?

The Fantasy Football Geek: I suppose that depends on what your definition of “high on” is. Looking at this list I see a ton of redraft potential as compared to where some of these guys are currently being drafted. Matt Jones doesn’t have much competition in Washington right now, if any. For players that employ a zero RB strategy he could make for a decent player with top 10 upside in the later rounds. Lewis is another player that should make for an acceptable flex play in PPR formats. You could do worse than Abdullah as the second player off your bench as well. We still don’t know what he will become.

 

Utter-Fantasy #10) Last December I wrote that in 2016…Dallas owner Jerry Jones would break the bank ( one of his) to sign a dependable backup quarterback for QB Tony Romo. With only rookie Dak Prescott and journeyman Kellen Moore on the roster behind Romo, it’s safe to say my prediction has not come to fruition. Not that I mind, but is Jones setting himself up for a repeat of 2016…seriously?

The Fantasy Football Geek: Nick Foles is out there right now and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in a Dallas uniform at some point soon. As much as I love T-Rom as a player, with all the injury issues he can’t be trusted to make it through a season healthy.

 

Next Week’s Guest….the one and only…..FFcouchcoach

 

1st AND 10 WEEK 20 WITH DFF’s MICHAEL HUGHES
1ST AND 10 WEEK 19 WITH FANTAYIPA’s ARTHUR RICHARDSON
1ST AND 10 WEEK 18 WITH QUESTFFL’s MATT DOUGHERTY
1ST AND 10 Week 17 WITH TFA’S JENNIFER SMITH
1ST AND 10 WEEK 16 WITH RTFANTASYSPORTS
1st AND 10 Week 15 with Eric dewalt
1st AND 10 Week 14 With Jamie Black
1ST AND 10 WEEK 13 WITH DFF’s MICHAEL HUGHES