1st and 10 Week 22 by Utter-Fantasy Football Writer & Illustrator Doug Bowles
“1st and 10″ is a weekly segment by Utter-Fantasy.com, getting fantasy football insights from a knowledgeable person in the fantastic fantasy football community. With 10 questions each week, we will canvass some of the hot button topics to keep us all informed on the ever-changing NFL landscape and which ones might carry major fantasy football implications.
Every Monday, at approximately 12:00 Noon Central, I will post the latest segment of “1st & 10.” If you enjoy it, let us know. If you have any fantasy football questions, really let us know.
1st and 10 Week 22- August 15th, 2016
“1st and 10″ Week 22 – Special Guest Writer- the 1 & only…..FFcouchcoach
Be sure to follow The FFcouchcoach on Twitter @FFcouchcoach
and visit FFcouchcoach.com often!
Utter-Fantasy #1) WASH TE Jordan Reed is currently ranked higher in ADPs than is CAR TE Greg Olsen. NE WR Julian Edleman is currently ranked higher in ADPs than are WRs Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Larry Fizgerald. The reason I write about TE Reed and WR Edleman is because both are often injured and are unable to play a full 16 game season. Are fantasy football owners putting too little importance on a player’s durability? ( Reed is being ranked above TE G Olsen, who hasn’t missed a game since 2011)
FFcouchcoach: I love Jordan Reed. I own him myself in one league… but I traded for him. In a startup draft, I will more-than-likely never own Reed because of how high his ADP is. I don’t believe in drafting a TE early because the TE pool is so rich. Obviously, there’s a drop off in tiers… but it’s more dedicated to hoarding WRs early in drafts.
Out of the 4 WRs mentioned above, the guy I’m drafting – in redraft or dynasty drafts – is Golden Tate. He’s the man in Detroit, and I think he is going to have one hell of a season. After that, it really depends on the type of league. Redraft, I’m taking Larry Fitzgerald next, followed by Baldwin, then Edelman. In dynasty, I’d go with Baldwin next, then Edelman… then Fitz.
“Injury-prone” is a term thrown around too loosely in fantasy football. It’s something guys say as filler while they’re speaking. While a player’s injury history should be a factor to consider, I don’t allow it to become my decision-maker. I’m more concerned with things like ADP value… and situation. As I stated, I wouldn’t draft Jordan Reed – but it has nothing to do with his injury proneness… it’s because he’s being taken too high in drafts for my liking. At the same time, I also would not draft Julian Edelman… but it’s only partially because of his age & injuries. My reason for preferring someone else over him is because he will be without Tom Brady for 4 weeks to open up the 2016 season. Compound that with his injury issues, and I’m staying away.
Utter-Fantasy #2) Are you in agreement with so many in the fantasy football community, that SF running back Carlos Hyde is “an amazing fit” for the Chip Kelly system?
FFcouchcoach: I’ll begin by disclosing that I am an Eagles fan. I was one of the bozos chanting “In Chip We Trust” when he came riding in on his Super-Fast-Paced-Offense Stead. Needless to say… I have a bit of a sour taste left in my mouth. That being said; the Chip Kelly offense does produce very nice fantasy football running backs. It’s all about that volume, and the 49ers will be running lots of plays under Chip. As a result, Carlos Hyde will be fed. Another 49ers RB to consider later in drafts is Shaun Draughn. He’s a very nice PPR back, and you can stash him on the back end of your bench for cheap. I wrote more about Shaun Draughn here.
Utter-Fantasy #3) NE TE Rob Gronkowski is the clear #1 tight end in the NFL, and the drop off from #1 to #2 is the biggest gap at any position. Which position has the 2nd biggest drop off and who are the 2 players involved in your decision?
FFcouchcoach: The WR position in fantasy is extremely deep… and I’d say the transition from tier to tier is the most gradual, making the drop-off not so drastic. When looking at it, I’d say the next dramatic drop is at the RB position. When you take a look at the Team FFCC Consensus Dynasty RB Rankings, you’ll see what I mean. The top 6 RBs are: Gurley, Elliot, Johnson, Bell, Miller, Ingram. After that, you have Yeldon, Freeman, Hyde, Gio. The drop off in talent – and in offensive role – is pretty clear.
Utter-Fantasy #4) The running back situation for the New England Patriots may be the most unpredictable for fantasy football owners on draft day. Take a stab at this backfield and tell me how you think 2016 will shake out between the current roster of Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount, James White, Brandon Bolden and Donald Brown.
FFcouchcoach: I really like Dion Lewis, and I think the Patriots do too. I can remember watching a game last season where Dion Lewis fumbled twice… and we still saw him play! That, in my opinion, was huge because similar past instances have shown us that a fumbling RB on a Bill Belichick offense does not step foot onto the field. Lewis is a nice PPR back, and showed he’s got what it takes to run with the big dogs before suffering a season-ending injury in 2015. Blount is an OK buy later in drafts. He is nothing to get excited about, but he’s affordable in drafts, and can be a decent plug-and-play in a pinch. The problem is; his use is so sporadic, it’s more frustrating to own him than it’s worth. A guy in New England I really like that no one is really talking about is Tyler Gaffney. Keep an eye on this kid – and check out his profile on PlayerProfile. Wowza!
Utter-Fantasy #5) Pittsburgh has a bye in Week 8. Even though RB LeVeon Bell now has a maximum of playing in 12 games. who are some of the upper echelon running backs that you still rank below Bell?
FFcouchcoach: The most notable guys I have ranked below him are Gio Bernard and T.J. Yeldon. It’s not because I wouldn’t want to own these 2 – it’s just that Le’Veon Bell is just that damn good (when playing). That being said… I am avoiding Bell. This is one of those instances where calling someone injury prone is acceptable, and that’s not even the reason I’m avoiding him. I’m avoiding him because he is a knucklehead who can’t keep his head on straight. He’s a rule-breaker, and that could result in a wasted early 1st round selection. I prefer to stay away from the trouble maker players. It’s like buying a house in a bad neighborhood, then sinking a ton of money into it in hopes that you can turn around and sell it for a profit. You will never recover that value… because of outside factors, not because of the house. It’s an amazing house with all the bells & whistles… but it doesn’t change the fact that you can get robbed at any time. Bell could be suspended at any time. Amazing talent… not worth the investment he’ll cost you.
Utter-Fantasy #6) Would the Hall of Fame game fiasco been avoided if Goodell had not been the NFL commissioner? (cancelled on August 7th)
FFcouchcoach: If I were the commish, I would be out there with my shirt off… sloshing a grading rake back & forth yelling “This game is happening, people!!”
Perhaps ole Roger needs to try harder? Haha, kidding! I was pretty surprised when the cancellation happened – but I just kinda went on about my business. Definitely weird… just not sure if it rests squarely on the commish’s shoulders.
Utter-Fantasy #7) Green Bay and Philadelphia both have a “Bye” week as soon as Week 4 of the NFL regular season. This will mean that they will have to play 13 games in a row after their bye. Is this an advantage, a disadvantage or irrelevant for these two teams?
FFcouchcoach: I don’t think it’s going to matter for the Eagles. Either way, this team is expected to be pretty bad in 2016. The Packers are ranked at 32nd (dead last) for Strength of Schedule, and I’d think a Week 4 BYE would have something to do with that. The Green Bay offense was almost unrecognizable in 2015, and that was largely due to the fact that they lost WR Jordy Nelson for the season – before the season even began. I’d imagine it’s safe to say that playing 13 straight games makes it harder to remain healthy all season long.
Utter-Fantasy #8) In 2015, I recommended that fantasy football owners avoid RB Darren McFadden like the Bubonic Plague 0f 1347. Thanks to the best O-Line in the NFL, McFadden ended 2015 as the #13 running back in the NFL, and made my recommendation a very bad one. Who in 2015 ( or in previous years) have you missed on with an “avoid” recommendation?
FFcouchcoach: Before the 2015 season began, I can remember making fun of a friend of mine for hanging on to Michael Crabtree – saying that I wouldn’t give him a can of beans for him in a trade. This was when Crabtree was still on the 49ers. It appeared as though Crabtree was a fantasy stinker… a let-down. Crabtree signed on with the Raiders, and he became a valuable asset. It happens! Womp womp…
Utter-Fantasy #9) The curse of the Madden is well known, and of the past Fantasy Football Index magazine covers ( QB A Luck, QB P Manning, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Gronk. and RB Arian Foster ) only Manning has not had a disappointing season. My question to you is….do you believe in a jinx?
FFcouchcoach: Naa, I don’t believe in the mumbo jumbo. If I can get my studs where I prefer them in a draft… I’m jumping on them! I don’t care about any coincidental “curse”. Let’s not forget: football is an extremely violent game. We have 22 super athletes running at full speed towards one another & colliding… for hours on end… every week. There are going to be injuries, and the cover of some game has zero to do with it.
Utter-Fantasy #10) How much will DET QB Matthew Stafford miss “Megatron?”
FFcouchcoach: I think The Lions have brought in some really nice pieces for Matt Stafford to continue his success in the NFL – and for him to be a valuable fantasy football QB in 2016. Like everyone else, I love Megatron… he was amazing. But for the first time, this offense will not revolve around one guy. I think Calvin’s absence will allow the ball to get spread around more, and Stafford’s stats won’t skip a beat. Golden Tate is a monster after the catch, and the signing of Marvin Jones gives them a very reliable 2nd target. The RBs are coming along nicely, and Eric Ebron seems to have escaped a big-deal injury. I’m kind’ve excited to see what the 2016 Detroit Lions offense will do.
Next Week’s Guest….Mike Randle/ Fantasy Football Writer for LWOS